A time to be very smart!

The Barnett shale was considered to be a monster find at 2 to 5 MMcf/d

The first three wells by Petrohawk in the Bossier Elm Grove area were 16.7, 16.8 and 20.1 MMcf/d. Understand this! these wells have chokes. The volune is reduced by about 60% Do the math!

The first well (16.8) produced a average of 13.7 MMcf/d for the first thirty days.

Petrohawk hired a outside firm to access the amount of gas in that section.

Their findings were, if the gas was averaged thru the section there would be 170 BCF in that section.

How much is that? One well producing 15MMcf/d would take about 32 years to extract that much gas!

Of course they will use multible wells in each section. One well in that tight of a formation can't get to all of it.

They were very exicted to find the depth of the shale was about 250 feet.

What is the depth of the shale in South Caddo and North Desoto.
I'm hearing 1100 to 1400 thick!

For some strange reason the results for a number of wells are ready but have not yet posted results.

Did you here the one about the drillers are running out of money!

Both Cheasapeak and Petrohawk are offering stocks as I speak to fund the purchase additional land in the Haynesville shale.

If they don't have the money someone will!

30 to 60 days from now will be a new ball game!

Buck

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on September 11, 2008 at 14:30
When referring to 1100 to 1400 ft., are you referring to depth or thickness of the Haynesville pay? I've never seen those numbers anywhere, if referring to thickness.

Chesapeake offered stock in July of 2008, Petrohawk in August of 2008; both offerings have been completed for a while.

Did the 170 BCF of gas in the section refer to Gas in Place or Recoverable Gas?

If the Hypothetical well producing 15 MMCF per day were to decline by 70 % in the 1st year and an additional 70% in the 2nd year, I calculate it would be producing approximately 1.35MMCF by the start of the 3rd year. I have read that that has been the experience in the Barnett Shale. Could that be the decline rate in the Haynesville, also?

Any thoughts?
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on September 11, 2008 at 14:42
Thank you, Jay. As I remember, the decline slows to about 8% per year in years 3 through about 10. Will probably refrac in year 11 or so.
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on September 11, 2008 at 15:07
As soon as you show me the log that reflects 1,400 ft. of net Haynesville pay in the Estes #7 well, I will gladly show you where the depletion numbers come from in the Barnet.
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on September 11, 2008 at 15:14
Your own numbers reflect a 18.45 % plus decline in the first month, at a minimum, chicken feathers.
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on September 11, 2008 at 16:52
William, so where did you get 170 Bcf of "recoverable" gas in a section? I reckon the same place you found the 1400 ft of net pay. By the way you are probably going to sell your gas for $30 per MMbtu, right! And the wells will cost $1,000 to drill. Right, that's the ticket.
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on September 11, 2008 at 16:44
Spring Branch, the 170 Bcf is gas in place not recoverable. Average recoverable gas in the core area is estimated at ~ 52 Bcf per section with 8 wells or ~ 6.5 Bcf per well.

Decline rate in the Barnett Shale is 60-70% in the 1st year but much lower (20-30%) in the 2nd year.
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on September 11, 2008 at 16:58
As technology continues to improve over the years I think we would both agree that the ultimate recoveries of the gas in place should improve, such that if we could get a 35 % recovery of gas in place, it could translate to 70 B's or more recoverable in some sections. The number I hear most currently is 28-29% recovery of the gas in place is what CHK and HK expect.. Have you heard any differently?

I'll defer to you on the second year decline rate, and hope you're right!
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on September 12, 2008 at 3:36
Spring Branch, if you are interested attached are some examples of the Barnett Shale decline rate curves.

Companies are starting with the conservative recovery rates (28-29%) but after some production I think they could be raised to the 40-45% range.
Attachments:
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on September 12, 2008 at 12:54
That was helpful, Les B.....thanks. The study I saw is @ my office. Was done by Penn State University and reflected 70% decline year 1, another 70% year 2, then leveling off to an 8 % decline per year in years 3 - 12, with a re-fracturing in year 13.
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on September 11, 2008 at 16:41
Who are you referring to as a pro? Surely not Buck? I would, however, call Shale Geo (Jay) a pro.
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on September 11, 2008 at 17:15
My regrets; thought you were posting to me.
Permalink Reply by getoverit on September 12, 2008 at 13:05
I agree. Sounds all too familiar.

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