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Permalink Reply by twomule on October 16, 2008 at 15:31

234022- 231 MCFD

235717-2647 MCFD

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Permalink Reply by El Theo on October 16, 2008 at 15:40

That really doesn't sound like too much. When they have wells coming in at 15 mmcfd I don't understand why they are putting so many wells in the area. Is that .23 mmcfd well a vertical? Is the other one choked back, or has it simply regressed to that point?

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Permalink Reply by sesport on October 16, 2008 at 15:50

Okay, this is just my layman's understanding of it ... but that 15 mmcfc was released as what some well initially produced, and it was expected to taper off. My rough guess based on what I've looked at shows the mmcfd usually drops off about 2/3 of what is initially produced. I see they're both on choke as of July this year, and once again there are no reports for Aug. & Sept. I also see a new well permitted, #238444, which I take as an idication there's more to be had down there. Anyone out here that knows better, please correct me if I'm wrong.

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Permalink Reply by Dion Warr, CPL on October 17, 2008 at 4:10

El Theo:

Your first well appears to have been a early vertical Haynesville test well which has produced minimally, but showed the viability of the formation, but production from the wellbore tailed off dramatically within six months (70-75% from initial). The second well was completed in October 2007, which was a horizontal completion. As you'll note, the initial test pressure (±6 times the vertical well) and initial potential (±10-12 times the vertical well) indicated (as one would expect) that the horizontal completion would be the better method to produce from the formation.

Based upon this well being a relatively early Haynesville horizontal completion, it could be that G&G were still fine tuning their techniques as to maximizing production, or they just didn't find the downhole characteristics and dynamics they were looking for in producing the well, but I would estimate that this well would have been a disappointment considering the expense in drilling a horizontal well.

SInce the production from both of these wells are pooled into the same LUW code (as one would expect for a unit well and any alternates in the same unit), it would take some digging to find out whether the vertical well is still producing minimally or not at all (the fact that the vertical is currently at 64/64" choke is indication that the well is not far from being operated at more or less "wide open"). Being that there is unit production, for lease maintenance purposes, it would be immaterial (as there is still production from the horizontal).

Based upon other reports of decline rates elsewhere on this forum from more knowledgeable sources (Shalegeo and others), the falloff of production is predictable (at least until other frac and/or reworking operations are performed).

With announcements of E&P budgets being cut back dramatically in recent weeks and months, I would surmise that companies will probably concentrate their drilling efforts around more proven productive areas, and in leased but untested areas of good potential where leasehold percentages are high and/or leases are set to expire in a short timeframe. There is a well permitted in the section, but I would count on it being drilled only when the prep crews start building the pad and rig trucks start moving in.

P. S. It is expected that production postings on SONRIS run anywhere from two to three months behind the current month. Those numbers are reported initially by the purchaser or transporter, then confirmed by the producer (based upon their numbers and return on sales), and finally checked against reported numbers to the state (b/c the state gets paid severance tax on production). If it all matches, the numbers are posted; if not, the state sometimes holds them back for review until everything is confirmed.

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Permalink Reply by El Theo on October 17, 2008 at 4:54

Thanks very much for your insight. Those numbers didn't really blow my skirt up either so I thought I might be looking at them wrong. However, there are a bunch of new pads in the area and activity is very heavy in the vicinity. As a matter of fact a new well just started getting drilled yesterday about 1000 yards or so behind my property. If those numbers aren't exceptional, then why all the activity? I suppose it's time for me to go find a few more of the active well sites and see how they are doing, but most are brand new, so there is probably not much info available yet.

Again I appreciate the interpretations. Those SONRIS charts make me cross-eyed.

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Permalink Reply by Checkmateking on October 17, 2008 at 8:17

Your in a good spot, no worries there.

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