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Permalink Reply by dbob on June 16, 2012 at 7:44

Les

Any thoughts on if there may be some natural fracturing they may have hit, making this look "better" than it is?

If I review the slides right, they are showing 67 BCF/well with an 18 stage frac (hypothetically).  It would only take 720 of those wells to get the 48 TCF....

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on June 18, 2012 at 3:05

Dbob, you are close but see Slide 87 - 65.9 Bcf/Well & 731 well locations.

 

Most shale gas plays have some level of natural fracturing that contributes to the well performance.  This play's performance seems to be related to the rock quality, formation depth and pressure gradient.  The key will be if the rock quality is consistent across the entire play.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on June 18, 2012 at 16:26

I guess what I'm getting at - in some areas of the Austin Chalk, operators have hit very long, prolific natural fracture systems that make for absolute monsters.  Of course, most wells don't hit that, and tend to drag averages down.  From a shale standpoint, until more tests are done, is there any way to validate APC's claims?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on June 19, 2012 at 3:15

Dbob, the information from Apache regarding the rock quality and initial well test looks reasonable but it will take a lot more drilling results to validate their development model.

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Permalink Reply by DrWAVeSport Cd1 on June 16, 2012 at 14:58

Les B,

Thanks for the fyi.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on June 18, 2012 at 7:11

Les,

Does that rank the Haynesville Shale down to 3rd behind this and Eagleford or are we much lower than that?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on June 18, 2012 at 16:17

Bobi, it depends upon the criteria used for the ranking.  For gas productivity the Haynesville Shale would rank above all existing shale gas plays (excluding the new Liard play). Based on economics the Haynesville Shale would fall below several of the existing shale plays for the next few years.

 

The situation could improve for the Haynesville/Bossier Shale play toward the end of the decade if suppliers need natural gas for the Gulf Coast LNG export projects. 

 

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