Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 19, 2011 at 6:06

John, would you share "the size" that you think the lease play encompasses?  There is no discernible drilling activity at this time which supports the focus of leasing as the L SMK/Brown Dense.  I occasionally run across a well permitted in the generally accepted area of the State Line SMK Trend and to the approximately correct depth.  None are by major independents.  The latest is SN 242966, S7-23N-13W, Arkana Field, Bossier Parish. LA. permitted to 9900' by Gulf South Operators.  J-W Operating still has not spud their Denny 1-32H  SMK permitted to 9600' in Union County, AR.

Permalink Reply by John Brewster on March 19, 2011 at 6:36

Hi Skip, I wondered when you would jump in.  I have no solid information.  The persistent rumor has been something in the 100,000 acre range.  That would be large for small companies, but about the size one might expect for a medium sized independent.  EOG and CHK would do more if they really knew they had something.  I have assumed 100,000 could be a reasonable guess based upon the fact that Pinebelt seems to be leasing across a rather large area ranging from Union Parish to Union County.  On the other hand, that is a lot of leases without one or more discovery/confirmation wells.  That is why I am frustrated to find out what the play will be.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 19, 2011 at 6:46

John, IMO much of the rumors involved with a possible Brown Dense Play are generated by an assumption that the current  total of acres leased is far larger than 100,000.  I find it difficult to get any reasonable estimate from the available information.  The lack of what you term discovery/confirmation wells is a curious fact which seems to get overlooked by many members involved in this discussion.  I'd like to think that there are those with the ability and interest to track the wells that I post but I have no proof that they do.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 19, 2011 at 8:08

tony, there are no wells.  That's the rub.  There were Haynesville wells permitted, drilled and completed several years prior to the public announcement of the HS.  There were Haynesville Units formed.  Test or exploratory wells precede leasing.  They may be few in number but they are there for those that know how to look.  Until we find one or more, my opinion is this leasing is pure speculation or focused on some prospect other than the L SMK/Brown Dense.  No significant operator builds this kind of leasehold on long term leases and no wells.  However speculators do just that.

Permalink Reply by North LA on March 19, 2011 at 8:07

Skip,

 

Using the Sonris GIS (which is great BTW) I was able to come up about 300k acres of interest in LA alone. This is based off of offers I know of and assuming that all the land inside the southern most line of offers is of interest. Based off the number of leases being filed in Claiborne and Union parish, and based off of reports from landowners, I would say that it's a fair assumption.

 

The above is based off of confirmed leases from people I trust and I would rate it as credible. There are also rumors that Devon is leasing northern Lincoln parish for the BD. I personally think Devon is checking out the LCV but this person says that he was told by someone he trusts that it is for the BD.  Including northern Lincoln adds another 100k for a total of 400k in Louisiana.

 

The most conservative model I have puts the acreage in LA alone at 150K acres.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 19, 2011 at 8:18

Devon is definitely into a horizontal CV Play in Lincoln Parish.  And drilling a horizontal Mooringsport well in Winn Parish.  I doubt that Devon is leasing for the Brown Dense because they do not normally reveal their intentions and could very well be telling prospective lessors that there intentions are one thing when they are actually something else.  There is a reason that Devon does not issue press releases on their E&P activities.  Please explain what portion of the SONRIS GIS map depicts leasehold by lessor.

Permalink Reply by North LA on March 19, 2011 at 8:27

 "Please explain what portion of the SONRIS GIS map depicts leasehold by lessor."

 

It doesn't. I'm using data points from people I know in Union Parish and I know a lot of people in Union parish:)

Permalink Reply by L Davis on March 19, 2011 at 8:36

Union County contains 665K acres and Columbia County contains 490K acres for a total of 1,155k acres.  Leasing appears to be limited to the southern half of the counties (mostly south of hwy 82).  This would be an area of just under 600K gross acres available for leasing. Of course some of this acreage is already hbp.  I think that you could safely assume that 500K acres are available for leasing in the southern part of the two counties.  How much has been leased is the big question! 

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 19, 2011 at 9:27

Caution should be applied when attempting to define a stratigraphic interval, particularly within a relatively narrow depth range, by arbitrary surface boundaries such as counties or parishes.  Not all of the surface acres within the counties you reference may be prospective.  Considering the locations of the wells we have discussed in our Brown Dense debate to date,  I think a likely definition of where to look for L SMK/Brown Dense test wells is, from north to south, mid - 18S townships in AR. down to the lower sections of the 23N townships in LA.  As far as east to west, consider everything from the Mississippi border into Cass and Marion counties in Texas.  It would be ideal to know the depth of the L SMK/BD across that AOI but there are few historic wells with sufficient depth or accurate records.  To be conservative consider a reasonable depth interval to be ~ 9000' TVD in the far north and ~11,000' in the south keeping in mind that the downdip is not uniform, faulting creates significant depth variations across relatively short surface distances and  depth also varies on the east-west axis.  Additionally imagine that the area is a historic basin and over long periods of time the boundaries change and the type of materially deposited does also.  Just as portions of the Haynesville formation are shale and portions are sand, the Brown Dense may not be uniformly prospective across the entire range mentioned.

Permalink Reply by Polly Ann Foote on March 15, 2011 at 8:36

One of the Triad memorandum leases lists 1 tract of land of 45.11 acres, and the memorandum is 1 page. It also provides for a 3 year primary term which is the only 3 year listed and I imagine this lessor has extracted other concessions which Triad does not want public. Another Triad lease which is provided in its entirety goes on for 15 pages, and it has no changes in their lease form. Further this same lease lists the section township range in two instances as 43604 and 43696 respectively and two other valid section township range tracts list the description as "not described". If they were interested in saving filing costs, this one would have been a very good candidate.

Permalink Reply by cpj on March 17, 2011 at 1:05

New to the board.  What I am seeing goes along with others have said about leasing.  For the last several months$300 per acre and a 1/5th has been the going lease deal.  That's up from about a year ago when it was around $175 and varying royalty rates.  Separately, I am aware of a Brown Dense seismic project being put together for Devon in north Lincoln Parish, the Rock Corner area.

Permalink Reply by North LA on March 17, 2011 at 5:44

Are you sure Devon is looking at the brown dense and not the lower cotton valley?

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