Can Petrohawk, Chesapeake or Encana drill fast enough to hold their leases in the core area?

What are people's thoughts on the drilling that needs to take place to hold all the leases in the core area per Chesapeake? With prices where they are, would it still make sense to horizontally drill the core area to hold all these leases just to profit from a measly 3.73 MCF gas price with production at 14 million cubic feet (just threw that number out there), not to mention throw in the 70-80% decline rate after the 1st year. That's a significant amount of high volume gas sold at a very cheap price just to hold a lease. Is it even possible now for Chesapeake, Petrohawk and Encana now to punch enough holes to hold there substantial acreage in this core area with the massive cut back in rigs? What's the chances for these companies to just punch a vertical well to hold the lease and pay shut-in royalties until gas prices stabalizes and then come back and finish up the horizontal part of the well and get it to market which would be beneficial to the landowner and gas company at a much high price. These are just a couple things that have been stewing in the back of mind over the last couple months and would like to get some feedback from the regulars on here.

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Permalink Reply by Jack Blake on April 7, 2009 at 14:52
I have about 1.5 years left to chill. When I have about a year until my lease expires I'll begin exploring options (if no well is spudded by then).
Long live the Haynesville Shale!!!!!!!!!!
Permalink Reply by lanadan Ds3 on April 9, 2009 at 21:28
Jack Blake,

Check the wording of your lease. If it says ". . . COMMENCEMENT of drilling operations . . .", etc., then they don't actually have to SPUD by the expiration date of the lease. Building of pad, setting up, etc. may qualify for HPB. They cannot, however just do all these gymnastics and go off and forget about it.
Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on April 7, 2009 at 20:55
Jack, it probably depends on how many acres you have in the section. If you have a large tract, and it is leased to the company that will operate the section, they will surely drill before your lease runs out, so as not to have to re-lease you. If a small tract, you might get a chance to re-lease.
Permalink Reply by Jack Blake on April 9, 2009 at 10:32
I have a small tract (20 acres) and it is leased to Cheseapeake. Shell is the company that filed to make the section a production unit, so I may get a chance to release.
Long live the Haynesville Shale cried Jack Blake!!!!!!!
Permalink Reply by VSC DeSoto South on April 7, 2009 at 22:30
In the same vein as this discussion, once they have come through a drilled 1 well whether it be vert or horizontal and have HBP, does anyone have any thoughts, forecasts, conjecture or intel on what the time line looks like to come back and fully develop units? Example: Units may be 8 wells per, That beings the case, will the master plan be to drill one well on each unit each 5 years over 32 years, or 3 years over 21 years, or different timeline? or 3 years? or go unit by unit and drill all 7 remaining wells? If this were the case, considering the production decline, about every 5 years there would be a spike in production .
In addition, when would refracing occur, every 7-8 years for each well by drill date, another spike?
Are there any of the companies, the Dept Conversation or other organizations putting out any kind of information like this?
Though the Barnett ramped more slowly at this point compared to the HS, how has it taken for them to fully develop units, are they still in the build out process?
Permalink Reply by Greedy Landowner on April 8, 2009 at 2:06
I'm not in the business, but I would suspect that the market conditions would dictate when future drilling would happen.
Permalink Reply by Scott on April 8, 2009 at 4:50
Thanks for the insight.
Permalink Reply by P.G. on April 9, 2009 at 12:06
I wonder if there will be any serious production seen in the Haynesville other than merely for HBP purposes given the current political environment?
Permalink Reply by Jay Murrell on April 10, 2009 at 0:30
I agree. Some of these leases will be renewed two or three times before they are drilled. It will likely be many years before the regional extent of this play is drilled up.
Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on April 10, 2009 at 3:54
Not everyone asked for a pugh clause. Isn't it likely that they will analyze their leasehold and drill HOSS or CV wells to hold what they can where they can?

I would imagine that some of the urban property might be productive but hasn't been cost effective to drill to these formations.

Does this sound likely to anyone else?
Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on April 10, 2009 at 4:11
Jim,

That's good to hear. I was only focused on the cost of the well.

My assumption was that they could put 8 CV wells down for about the cost of 1 HS well. They wouldn't get the return on their investment but they wouldn't lose their initial investment.

Thanks for clarifying it. I know that all areas won't be productive in the other formations, but I've been wondering why they don't drill the one's that are.

It may not be much cost difference to drill to the HS than the other formations either. Of course, I don't know this information.

If there isn't much difference in cost, I guess they would drill a vertical to the HS and eliminate any pugh clauses.
Permalink Reply by P.G. on April 11, 2009 at 3:37
Wouldn't it be more cost effective to drill to hold existing leases than re-negotiate those leases?
If not to save money, how about to freeze those terms now that so many have been educated about the value of their minerals? Be awful difficult to pull off again what they did when land owners were mostly ignorant as what was going on!

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