Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on June 28, 2019 at 11:44

Dion

Good catch on the tubing. 

Permalink Reply by Mark on June 30, 2019 at 3:58

From what I can gather the oil companies believe that commercial quantities of oil and possibly one day gas is there. That’s great but it looks like so far anyway that the right methods or technology hasn’t been applied. It may not be available right now. I know there have been massive changes in the oilfield since I left. It may take the next evolution of technology to produce it. That being said if the oil is there it will still be there waiting. We just may not be here when that happens. 

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on June 30, 2019 at 4:01

Stranded Reserves.

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Permalink Reply by Rock Man on June 30, 2019 at 4:25

The technology is basically already there to access and produce any O&G reserves in the AC in the part of the trend. The question is the volume that this reservoir contains and can give up using the frac stimulation approach. The big wildcard on all this is oil and gas prices - economics will drive how this play is developed in areas where the AC will be proven to "work".

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Permalink Reply by Tigger80 on June 30, 2019 at 11:36

You mean 2 years?

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Permalink Reply by Rock Man on June 30, 2019 at 12:15

Instantaneous production decline at hyperbolic rate decreases monthly net cash flow drastically. That initial moth's net revenue will be 10-20% of that after a few years.

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Permalink Reply by Mark on June 30, 2019 at 13:00

Another thing that leads you to believe this isn’t working is there is no new leasing and I haven’t heard anything about speculators. If that were true Amelia would have sold a bunch of their acreage by now

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on June 30, 2019 at 13:17

Amelia has already assigned a couple 100,000+ acres in multiple deals to several of the current players.  I also think that Kirk likely holds a couple hundred more while waiting for some well results.  No company is going to go beyond there initial land positions until they can confirm the economics of the play.  I suspect they currently hold enough dirt to conduct their exploration plans.

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Permalink Reply by Mark on June 30, 2019 at 13:20

I’ve got 100 acres between the McKowen and the proposed well on the Blairstown road directly south of the EOG well. All are within 6-7 miles as the crow flys. We haven’t been contacted. Who knows

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on June 30, 2019 at 13:25

I think Infill leasing will commence quickly in proximity to any and all successful wells.  If your parish clerk of court has a remote access account, I suggest that you get a subscription.  Several can share in the cost.  Louisiana is a "race" state so lessees can not sit on leases indefinitely without recording them in the public record.  I would actually prefer to be un-leased at this point in the play.  If operators figure out the key to economic wells, the lease offers should improve significantly.  Especially for those close to the economic wells.  Sharpen your pencils and keep up with developments.

And if things fall you way, consider a donation to GoHaynesvilleShale.com

https://gohaynesvilleshale.com/page/donate-to-ghs

Permalink Reply by Tigger80 on June 30, 2019 at 15:07

I’m sorry guys. I’m a common core mathematician. Public school education in the Obama years. 

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Permalink Reply by Mark on June 30, 2019 at 15:24

Well the McKowen is a dog for whatever reason so that’s not looking good. The second well COP drilled isn’t looking good. I’m not counting on much. 

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