Gas Giants Are Getting Left Behind the Energy Rally. Here’s Who Might Break Out.

By Laura Sanicola   June 08, 2026  barrons.com

Natural gas producers are missing the energy rally. While crude prices have surged, U.S. natural gas prices have barely budged since the Iran war started. Shares of “dry gas” producers like Expand Energy and Comstock Resources, facing a new reality of lower prices, are down double digits this year.

Producers aren’t suffering in tandem, though. Supplies of natural gas liquids, or NGLs, have been held up in the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That’s helping U.S. producers such as Range Resources and Antero Resources, up 14% and 7% respectively this year.

The laggards look cheap—particularly Expand and Comstock. The catch is that rising U.S. oil production is likely to keep natural gas prices depressed (since gas is a byproduct). While there’s a healthy demand story, additional supply keeps hitting the market, keeping prices below even modest estimates baked into the stocks.

Analysts like Antero, which is selling dry gas to LNG plants above the U.S. benchmark and is making more money off NGLs like propane and butane. They’re also bullish on EQT, whose ownership of Appalachian pipelines gives it a way to move more gas toward prospective power demand in Virginia and the Carolinas. Expand Energy is dicier, though it’s making moves now that could pay off down the line.

Gas Pains

Natural gas prices can be more fickle than oil, making forecasts an even trickier art. U.S. prices often trade between $2-to-$4.50/MMBtu but they’re highly weather dependent: mild winters and summers leave more supply in storage, while cold snaps and heat waves quickly tighten the market and send prices higher. Despite some hot weather in Europe and Asia last week, inventories were high enough from a mild winter to keep prices lower than previously forecast. 

More gas is coming. Drillers like Diamondback Energy don’t mind selling gas at a loss in Texas to reap the profits of high oil prices, says Gabriele Sorbara, a managing director at brokerage Siebert Williams Shank.

Investors are also snapping up acreage to crank out the gas for LNG. Japanese LNG buyers including Tokyo Gas, JERA, and Mitsubishi have purchased gas fields in Louisiana and East Texas near Gulf export terminals. If they can turn cheap U.S. gas into profitable LNG, they may be willing to keep developing supply even when the Henry Hub benchmark is weak, Sorbara says.

On the demand side, there’s vibrant growth from LNG exports and electricity generation.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects natural gas exports to grow nearly 21% by 2027 as new LNG facilities ramp up. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie expects the U.S. to add 63 gigawatts of gas-fired generation capacity by 2030, more than twice the net increase over the past five years.

Yet the U.S. is still likely to overproduce, resulting in prices that go nowhere or slip from here. The EIA now forecasts Henry Hub at an average $3.50 in 2026, down from $4 six months ago. The EIA sees it at $3.18 in 2027, down from a forecast $4.59 in January.

“Supply came ahead of this demand wave, and now we’re in this air pocket where it’s unlikely that we’re going to see $4 gas prices as a floor soon,” Sam Margolin, an energy analyst at Wells Fargo, told Energy Insider.

Dry gas producers are trying to avoid being “price takers” for the commodity. Instead, they aim to gain more control over distribution and prices, while lowering production costs.

Here’s how some of the better positioned companies are handling it and the outlook for their stocks.

Antero Resources

Denver-based Antero looks well equipped for lower gas prices. The firm produces natural gas and related fuels in Appalachia, a region where gas often sells at a discount due to limited pipeline access and long distances to big demand hubs like LNG terminals.

Yet Antero has profitable ways out of Appalachia. The company can move 2.3 billion cubic feet a day of gas to LNG markets, usually at higher prices than Henry Hub, according to JPMorgan analysts.

Antero also produces a large amount of propane and butane, which are pricier than before the war. Its recent acquisition of HG Energy added land and drilling sites in West Virginia, where Antero says it produces about half the state’s natural gas, while lowering costs.

The company has been asked to bid on more than five billion cubic feet a day of potential supply tied to power plants and data centers, half of the potential market it sees through 2030.

Better pricing has helped improve profitability and should lift profits steadily. Analysts expect $4.67 a share in 2027 and $5.33 in 2028, according to consensus estimates. At recent prices, the stock trades at eight times 2026 expected earnings, the lowest since 2022. Its average price target is $50.90, 38% above recent levels, according to FactSet.

EQT

EQT, a 2025 Energy Insider pick, operates in the same region as Antero. It’s betting on local demand, rather than pushing more gas out to sea.

On its latest earnings call, the company said it’s in talks for billions of cubic feet a day of supply tied to power plants, data centers, and new pipeline projects. The biggest data centers deals haven’t fully materialized and wouldn’t necessarily give EQT a premium for its gas, but they would help lock in demand and lift the production outlook.

The company’s LNG strategy is smaller and further out; about 15% of its volumes will be contracted by 2030. EQT pays a small dividend, giving the stock a 1.2% yield. The company says buybacks are likely to be the main way it returns cash to shareholders, after cutting debt levels to free up more cash flow.

FactSet shows an average Overweight rating on the stock with a $71 target, about 30% above recent prices of $54. Estimates call for $4.79 a share of earnings this year and $4.69 in 2027. Shares trade around 11 times earnings for the next couple of years.

Expand Energy

Expand, created through the merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy, is now the largest independent natural gas producer in North America with major positions in Appalachia and the Haynesville region of Louisiana and East Texas.

Shares are down 16% this year, leaving the stock around $93. Expand’s scale hasn’t offered much protection as gas forecasts have fallen. It’s also more exposed to benchmark U.S. gas prices than rivals like Antero.

The company is in a transition phase. Expand parted ways with CEO Nick Dell’Osso earlier this year and is searching for a replacement. The company moved its headquarters to Houston.

Its strategy, broadly, is to sell more gas directly to LNG facilities, utilities, power generators, and data center developers. Expand also wants to be known as more of an energy marketer than pure producer. That is to say, it wants to find more ways to capture price differences across the supply chain rather than sell benchmark-linked gas.

One new venture is a 20-year deal tied to Delfin LNG, a planned floating export project off the Louisiana coast. Expand has agreed to buy 1.15 million metric tons of LNG a year from Delfin’s first vessel at a price linked to Henry Hub, potentially allowing it to sell the cargoes into higher priced overseas markets.

Delfin approved the project last week, but production isn’t expected to begin until 2030 and Expand’s contract would start in 2031.

Through it all, earnings should rise at a steady, but not spectacular clip. Analysts expect $8.91 a share this year and $9.14 in 2027.

At roughly 10 times expected 2026 earnings, Expand trades at a discount to EQT, but a premium to Antero. It looks less expensive on Ebitda, with investors assigning relatively little value to its enormous production base.

Wall Street is bullish on the stock. The average target is about $131, about 42% above recent levels at $93 per share.