Lower 48 Plays to Add 400 MMcf/d of Production from February to March, EIA Says

By Jeremiah Shelor   February 13, 2023 naturalgasintel.com

With the Haynesville Shale continuing to serve as the biggest driver of projected onshore natural gas production growth, output from seven key Lower 48 plays is poised to grow by 426 MMcf/d from February to March, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In its latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR), published Monday, the agency modeled total production of 96.591 Bcf/d in March from the seven regions tracked in the report. Those regions include the Haynesville, Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara formations, as well as the Anadarko, Appalachia and Permian basins.

Among the seven plays, the Haynesville is expected to remain the pacesetter for natural gas production growth from February to March, on track to add 131 MMcf/d to reach 16.602 Bcf/d of total output, the DPR data show.

The Permian is expected to grow natural gas output 97 MMcf/d month/month, with Appalachia to add a projected 80 MMcf/d for the period, according to EIA. Natural gas production gains are also expected from the Anadarko (32 MMcf/d), Bakken (31 MMcf/d), Eagle Ford (50 MMcf/d) and Niobrara (5 MMcf/d) regions from February to March.

Crude oil production from the seven regions, meanwhile, will rise 75,000 b/d from February to March to reach 9.357 million b/d, the latest DPR data show.

Crude output gains will come from the Permian (30,000 b/d), Bakken (21,000 b/d), Anadarko (12,000 b/d), Niobrara (5,000 b/d), Eagle Ford (4,000 b/d) and Appalachia (3,000 b/d) regions, the projections show.

The seven regions tracked in EIA’s DPR added 42 drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells from December to January, according to the latest figures. 

The Niobrara posted the largest net increase month/month, adding 22 DUC wells to grow its backlog to 561. The Haynesville (up 13), Anadarko (up four), Permian (up four), Appalachia (up two) and Bakken (up one) also grew their respective DUC backlogs, according to EIA.

Meanwhile, the Eagle Ford drew down its DUC total by four from December to January to end the period with 478 wells in its backlog, EIA data show.

EIA’s DPR makes use of recent rig data along with drilling productivity estimates and estimated changes in production from existing wells to model changes in production from the seven regions.

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