Chesapeake Energy: Worth Just $1?
Link: Chesapeake Energy: Worth Just $1?
FYI
Asset sales, a stronger outlook for cash flow and falling debt improve Chesapeake’s outlook – but do not justify a premium multiple to peers. Chesapeake reported strong Q1 results along with a $470 million asset sale. Chesapeake has now announced $1.2 billion of asset sales this year with only a modest negative impact on production. We estimate Chesapeake trades at a 5-10% premium to peer group multiples of mid-cycle debt-adjusted cash flow…
Chesapeake trades at a debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 8.5x mid-cycle estimates – a 5- 10% premium to peers using market prices for the convertible pref notes. This multiple has fallen sharply as a result of the additional $470 of asset sales that were announced, an increase of ~$700 mm in 2016-2017 cash flow estimates and a 16% increase in 2018 cash flows. If we were to use the face value of the convertible preferreds, the premium rises to 20-25%. While we applaud the progress Chesapeake has made, we believe a premium multiple is unwarranted. We are trimming our target multiple to maintain our $1 price target.
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on
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Thanks, Jan. I especially liked the article's comment section.
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Permalink Reply by Jan Holland on
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Chesapeake Energy to resume limited natural gas drilling in Utica, Marcellus shales
http://www.ohio.com/business/utica/chesapeake-energy-to-resume-limi...
“But Chesapeake is interested in drilling dry gas wells with little liquid content in the Utica Shale, said spokesman Frank Patterson.”
Haynesville Shale gas is dry, isn't it? ~ Jan Holland
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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on
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CHK currently is running 4 rigs in NW LA. That's been a consistent number for many, many months.
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Permalink Reply by Jan Holland on
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Thanks Skip
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Permalink Reply by Paul Butler on
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From the picture in that article, it looks like they closed the gym and laid off the personal trainers due to the cut back too.
I hope they kept the clergy, they need prayer!
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Permalink Reply by Paul Butler on
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The author of the article is an independent, highly respected analyst, paid to call things as he sees them, not as he desperately needs them to be.
The people making the comments have a vested interest in the author being wrong.
The people making comments lose money if the author is correct, that accounts for the vitriol and highly non-analytic nature of their comments.
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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on
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It's typical stock holder back and forth. Spend a little time on Investor Hub. It is quite entertaining.
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Permalink Reply by Paul Butler on
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It is highly entertaining and I spend waaaay too much time everyday on the comments sections to the articles I read.
I'm worried about the time as I only get more confused and less certain I understand what's going on by the comments.
You would have to have nerves of steel to play the shale stocks today.
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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on
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Then you might consider spending a little less time in the comment sections. Take a break and a deep breathe. I read them but I never post a comment. Don't wish to be drawn in to that type of conversation. Besides stock prices do not figure into my business model. I have never invested in any energy related company and don't intend to do so in the future.
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Permalink Reply by William C. Morrison on -
There are several so called independent analysts touting Chesapeake on Seeking Alpha web page. Claiming it is a wonderful stock in recovery and new management. I pointed out that there are countless lawsuits against Chesapeake for not properly paying out the royalties on wells and that they have lost again and again and again in court.
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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on
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William, though CHK has settled a number of suits I am unaware of many that they have lost. And of the ones where a lower court has ruled against them, there are appeals to higher courts. Those are not lost until all appeals are exhausted. I point this out because CHK is adept at settling cases that they could very well lose and the end result is that no case law is made that could be of value to later suits of similar cause. When there are well argued cases that go to a verdict against CHK the flood gates really will open and the end will be near.
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