Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on June 20, 2013 at 5:02

When SWN first permitted the wells they did so under Product Code 00 meaning no product designated.  Then when they were moving liquid under Emergency Clearance Requests, they changed to Product Code 10 which is oil.  When they requested redefinition of the unitized interval to condensate and gas they changed to Product Code 20 which is gas.  LUW codes for oil wells begin with 05.  Gas wells with 6.

Permalink Reply by Land Rat on June 20, 2013 at 5:03

and why haven't they reported any production numbers since March?

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on June 20, 2013 at 5:38

As I understand it. they are not required to report April production until June 30. Of course, as given earlier in this thread, SWN already reported April production in their First Quarter results.

Permalink Reply by Land Rat on June 20, 2013 at 9:22

it's like they knew we were talking about them. the new numbers are up.  do they reconcile with the numbers states in their call?

Permalink Reply by tony allen on June 20, 2013 at 10:39

SWN said the BML was producing 152 bopd and 1,510 mcf.

Doles 95 bopd and 1,772 mcf. Seems to add up.

Permalink Reply by obed w odom on June 25, 2013 at 10:24

For the record, the SONRIS figures for April were 7611 barrels of condensate, or 254 BCPD; and 93876 MCF of gas, or 3126 MCFD.

Permalink Reply by Land Rat on June 20, 2013 at 5:09

Also, can you distinguish between the product being sold from Weiser Brown and the BML/Doles unit? 

I also noticed that WB is perfed at the "Smackover" and the BML et al is producing from Lower Smackover Reservoir A.  What is the meaningful distinction between these two horizons?

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on June 20, 2013 at 5:23

Under LEASE\UNIT\WELL PRODUCTION the state breaks product down to Oil and Gas with all liquids reported under Oil even if it is more accurately characterized as condensate.  The SONRIS Well Scout completion data sometimes mentions condensate and sometimes it doesn't.  It is best to go to SONRIS Classic (Document Access) and view the Final Completion and Allowable reports to find the bbl of condensate.  In a number of wells producing liquids the break out would look something like this:  5% Oil, 30% Condensate, 65% gas.

I'll try to find time later to look at the W-B well.  It is non-unitized.

Permalink Reply by shale player on June 20, 2013 at 11:57

The WB well is completed as a vertical open hole completion in the top of the Brown Dense.  As I have stated in other post, the experts don't understand the relatively good performance of this well.  I'd speculate that they hit some natural fractures by luck and the well's performance supports this speculation.  Note that the WB well was not even frac'd.

On the other hand, the Doles and BML wells are relatively long horizontal wells with 15+ stages of frac's in the BD.  Frankly, the performance of these wells is a huge disappointment to SWN and the guys in the bar from SWN have said as much.  All of the potential JV partners got to see the insider information and all walked away with their money instead of trusting Willie's team with their cash.  Good call on their part. 

As the pressure in the wells continues to decline in the Doles and BML wells more oil will be dropping out in the formation, increasing the resistance to flow and reducing the amount of oil and gas that makes it to the surface for sales.  The guys in the bar have suggested that the flowing pressure is down to about 1/3 of the original flowing pressure. That's a bummer.

Finally, all of Mueller's talk about new frac  methods is a bunch of crap and he and his team knows it.  The BML and Doles are essentially the same in terms of long term performance.  I suspect that the stock analyst will start to be very skeptical of what Mueller has to say in the Q2 conference call unless he simply comes clean and tells the street what is really happening.  Hell, what I heard is that the frac guy they had quit SWN because he was discussed with his boss who is widely thought of in the company as a JA. 

Sorry Willie.  Come clean. 

Permalink Reply by tony allen on June 20, 2013 at 13:57

The analysts are not skeptical yet.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11955788/1/bulls-return-to-southwest...

Permalink Reply by North LA on June 20, 2013 at 14:26

Don't rain on his "Willie" hate parade Tony.

Permalink Reply by 2p6y7ycljui0u on June 20, 2013 at 15:07

I do not look at it as a hate parade. As time goes by in this Brown Dense play, seems we have an overload of hope and positive spin and little else. Analysts are high on the stock? The hyped up JV partners took a hike because they were haters? No, they took a hike on the Lower Smackover as presented by SWN. They were not buying common stock as a retail investor; they were asked to buy into the Brown Dense. They did not buy it.

Shale Player makes sense to me. Otherwise, where is the money?

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