Natural Gas Closes at Five-Month High on Bigger-Than-Forecast Supply Drop

Full article here.

 

Natural gas futures rose to the highest price in more than five months after a government report showed that U.S. inventories fell more than forecast last week as cold weather boosted demand for the heating fuel.

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Natural gas for February delivery advanced 13.4 cents to $4.695 per million British thermal on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement price since Aug. 4.

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Last week’s storage drop was bigger than the five-year average decline of 133 billion cubic feet, department data showed. A surplus to the five-year average fell to 1.9 percent from 5.8 percent the previous week. A surplus to year-earlier supplies widened to 2.8 percent from 2.4 percent.

Gas inventories may fall to 1.7 trillion cubic feet by the end of the winter heating season, down from the previous estimate of 2 trillion, Barclays Capital said in the report yesterday.

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“With more cold weather still in the forecast for the eastern U.S., we continue to see potential for nearby natural gas futures to run to $5,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.


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Permalink Reply by David on January 21, 2011 at 5:26
Well, we DID get excited when it went down to $5, and then lower, just not a very positive excitement!
Permalink Reply by P.G. on January 21, 2011 at 4:53

I wonder what price it would take to get the rigs to come back  and wreck the price again with another over supply?

What's needed is more markets for NG..

Permalink Reply by adubu on January 21, 2011 at 6:36
7-8 IMO would do it and it will happen some point in future but who know when too many factors play a roll
Permalink Reply by The_Baron on January 21, 2011 at 6:52
I wouldn't get too excited. Still a few days before the price is set, and we still have more in storage than at same time last year.
Permalink Reply by adubu on January 21, 2011 at 7:07
Baron--- check Natural Gas Trends on Texas RRC site believe this draw leave us below last years storage now
Permalink Reply by Scott on January 21, 2011 at 13:52
Another 3 to 4 weeks of extreme cold weather followed by more seasonal weather (normal 5 year average draws), my guess is by the end of the storage season, we will be a deficit scenario. Maybe we can get close to 5.00 dollar gas.
Permalink Reply by Gale on January 24, 2011 at 17:41
PG. Yes when NG hit $13 you better believe we (the 10-15 family members getting our mineral right) got excited, but believe it or not we've seen $16 before too. However that was before Haynesville came into play and although $5 sounds good at this point its also sicking to think of all the loss in 2 yrs. Its almost worth more in the ground than the screwing we are getting at $3-$4 .
Permalink Reply by P.G. on January 25, 2011 at 3:24

I think they need to find something other than cold weather to link NG prices to.

That way everyone could pray for "warm" weather rather than nasty cold weather, huh?

Permalink Reply by Gale on January 25, 2011 at 5:44
PG, Contrary to what you read on here often the weather is a major factor in what drives the price of NG to spike. Extremely hot summers impact the price just like the cold as does hurricaines etc. We have have mineral right check from NE Texas for over 30 yrs and we have seen gas under $2 and as high as $16 I think the major glich is over floodin the market until we see a greater demand for our clean burning NG to be used instead of alternative fuels. We would be quite happy for our NG to stay in the ground until the price is up. However that's not the way this game works so we get the good with the bad. But for everyone thinking they've hit the big time at $5 multipy that check by 3 and see what it could be. And its not like we see the savings on utilities.
Permalink Reply by Linda Whatley on January 25, 2011 at 6:19
I agree with Gale.  I too have been receiving royalty checks for many years from production on several shallow wells, and the price of gas usually goes up when there is an extreme change in the weather.  Of course, like Gale, I also understand we now have a more abundant supply of gas, so prices are much lower.  Makes me wonder why those low prices are not reflected in our utility bills!!!!!  I'd just like to see some savings passed on to the consumer!!!!!
Permalink Reply by P.G. on January 25, 2011 at 6:44
Get transportation fuel up a couple more dollars a gallon and we'll probably see trucking companies demanding reliable access to CNG.. With access at least at truck stops, people will demand it for their cars and pickups.. Convenience stores will then want in on the action. I'm sure once the leap to transportation happens, the weather won't matter so much..
Permalink Reply by Linda Whatley on January 25, 2011 at 6:47

You are so right P.G. 

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