Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on November 15, 2012 at 12:13

Thanks for the clarification, Les.  What natural gas price would you recommend as the most appropriate for us to follow? 

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on November 15, 2012 at 12:24

Skip, the NYMEX natural gas futures shows he general trend but I recommend that people keep track of the final settlement price of each month's contract.  Generally the wholesale price of natural gas in NWLA is 10-15 cents/MMBtu below NYMEX.    

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on November 15, 2012 at 12:27

I like the monthly settlement price also. 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 3, 2012 at 8:14

NYMEX Contract Settlement Price for Dec.:  $3.696

NYMEX Contract Settlement Average Monthly Price for 2012:  $2.789

http://gsfi.net/common/NYMEXSettlementHistory.pdf

Permalink Reply by Roy Austin Smith on December 3, 2012 at 8:40

My gas check today:

$163-1.74-1.72-1.78-1.80 . the last price , have not had a check in three months got $113.00 wonderful people.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on December 4, 2012 at 4:24

I concede.  I give up.  The price of NG is not going to go to $5 by end of year.  The experts are right.  But kinda ..I have to think ..are they experts in the same category as the ones that assured the republicans they had a chance to win the election right up to the hour of defeat?  Did any of them predict that NG royalty checks would drop to 1% of the amounts received this time last year?

I was addicted to Fox News.  I no longer watch.  I guess I had a big dose of aversion therapy during the election.

I think I am just going to kind of slink away and sulk for the next 48 months..will come out and play again in 2016.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 4, 2012 at 4:38

I was pleasantly surprised with the December Settlement Price.  For a mild early winter it's not bad IMO.  What's important is the pricing trend going forward for the remainder of the winter months and the average price for 2013.  I wouldn't predict it to be $5 but it could be enough above $4 to get some gas producers back in the black and make a significant difference in some royalty checks.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on December 5, 2012 at 4:33

I really did think that it had very good chance to go to $5 by end of year.  I joked but was serious in my thinking.

Things are so "feeling" unsettled right now ...  worse has happened in past but didn't seem to cloud people's moods to such an extent.

We still go out to eat at upscale joints, we still are shopping, and buying pretty much what we want in my group.  The difference is that some of our group have adult offspring worried about their inheritances..the fiscal cliff..the increase in inheritance taxes.  Our insurance coverages.  These are things that I have kept in my own personal domain and frankly do not like it that anyone questions my decisions.  One adult child practically demanded her mother sign over oil leases to her and her siblings now. 

Well I don't call myself KOH for nothing..that would have sent me to the attorney doing a slight change in my plans.  But it is an indication of how the 'younger' ones ...pretty much our kids are in their 50's...are thinking and worrying.

A friend in Colorado has a son in law who keeps consulting a chart that calculates likely life spans..he keeps telling her that if this happens and that happens and so on..that she will outlive her savings.  I told her to simply tell him that it was all figured out.  If she ran out of money she would just have all her bills sent to the 4 siblings and they could pay them. That she plans to live long and live well no matter what it cost.  But you see how they thinking. 

But the point and I went way off that is that the current news is unsettling a lot of people.  The worries are real and they impact the way people  think and act.

But these same 50's something are still spending on credit cards same as the government is doing.  

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 5, 2012 at 8:57

KOH, we have survived much worse and will do so again I think. Energy prices have a roller coaster history.  That will continue however technology will reduce the height of the peaks and the depths of the valleys. 

Although we haven't discussed it much lately the steep decline curve of most "tight" producing horizons will allow energy companies to better balance supply with demand.  We just have to have patience and get through the period of drilling to hold leases in the majority of new resource plays. 

Then we have to decide how to use, long-term, our new hydrocarbon bounty.  IMO, regardless of the political blow-back, and the human cost, we must stop burning coal.  Then invest in a new electric "smart-grid" that meshes natural gas generation with renewable energy sources.  The system will be heavily weighted to natural gas in the beginning decades but will allow for the growth of renewables as they become more efficient and less costly.  We will use less crude in the transportation sector as segments of our vehicle fleets transition to electric and CNG for light duty and LNG for heavy duty.  All vehicles will continue to become more fuel efficient.

The energy future is bright.  I understand your concerns about the younger generation(s) but our parents had that same feeling from time to time as did our grandparents.  They were all sure we were headed to hell in a handbag.  We're not there yet.  And I, for one, refuse to go.  LOL!  Happy Holidays.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on December 6, 2012 at 16:11

As always you are exactly on the mark.  No matter how I sound I really am having a good time..everyday at my age is a gift and I relish each one.  Its me, the 7 geese, the chickens, the goats and the dogs and cats plus the mama skunk that homesteaded the barn.  We all are happy and thriving.  We loved the parrot but since he is gone we lamented his loss but I dont' think any of the other animals miss him.  Guess it will be the same when I am gone.  Thank God we never got a Python..

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 6, 2012 at 16:36

 I'm glad you didn't get the Python.  I don't think the parrot would have liked it.  The remaining members of the menagerie sound just right. Attitude is everything.

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Permalink Reply by Roy Austin Smith on December 5, 2012 at 8:35

Dec 2 201: my check stub___1.63-1.74-1.72-1.78-1.80. last price was for three months @ $113.00. not too promising.

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