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Permalink Reply by GoshDarn on May 10, 2012 at 3:59

Please note.

No one truly knows what the future will bring for NG prices (during the next 12 months).  Too many unknown variables.

Now, per our exceptionally warm winter of 2011-2012 (with some folks not even turning on their heat/furnaces in Baton Rouge this last weather cycle) -- this might be a very bad hurricane season.  Warm water in the Gulf tends to fuel monster storms.

Also, industrial usage is trending up.

Plus, NG rigs are, in fact, being laid down; and the huge IP volumes on the super wells will also be trending down via less drilling for the foreseeable future.

And wells are being shut-in, too.

Now, true, there can be some debate if someone wants to nitpick the stats on any one or all of these variables.

But a purely guesstimate gut call (with little more than a poorly designed algorithm-like crystal ball, of sorts) -- says that the uptick in NG futures should hold, even with some bumps along the way (into Oct.).

Of course, this makes no sense per there being such excessive storage in the ground.

True.

Ergo, the above is a highly speculative supposition which could be terribly flawed since no one truly knows what the future will bring, even with oil prices.

Care in assumptions is advised.

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