Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Bill R on August 10, 2023 at 4:32

Your offers are way above the normal ones, correct?

The Past Offers were always between $3200 and $6100 for the same tracts, suddenly I received this $30200.00 offer for Whitton and Sacagewa... large enough to make me wonder, "why such a large amount?"... nothing had changed to warrant such a number as far as I could see.

i mean we are currently receiving Royalties from Whitton H-1, Sacagewa H -1, H - 2, H -3 and H - 4.... and I saw that Sacagewa had additional Permits for H-5 through H - 8.

I won't sell of course, regardless of Offers, but this 'increase' caught my attention and has me wondering 'what lies beneath?' again.

Skip Peel ; I am one of the Whitton Heirs with approximately 275 Acres at a 0.000875 Royalty interest... normally not near enough to warrant an offer of this current magnitude... normally I just get enough 'Chump Change' to keep me in Fishing Tackle! 

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 10, 2023 at 5:01

Bill, mineral buyers are informed by their investors.  Let me be clear, mineral companies on the whole keep zero or a very small percent of what they buy depending on their deal with their investor(s).  Investors look long term, mineral buyers live in the now.  It's not just your offer that has increased, it is offers increasing all over the Haynesville Shale fairway.  Investors don't mind having decent immediate income upon acquisition but that is chump change to them.  They are looking to 2024/2025 for new wells when natural gas prices should be better and new demand from LNG export facilities are in the offing.  I can't count how many contacts on and off of GHS I have received from mineral owners expressing the same surprise and having the same questions as you.  Yours is not a unique situation.  So will the investors be right?  Will you be glad you held onto your minerals?  Mineral owners share in the same risks that O&G companies deal with just to a somewhat lesser extent.  Good luck.

Permalink Reply by Bill R on August 10, 2023 at 5:42

Thanks Skip...

The O&G Market seems to have some up, down and sideway plays going on... once and a while, I just get a like "WHAT" moment when something really weird hits  LOL  < ,*}))))>/p>

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 10, 2023 at 5:44

Bill, if the mineral space wasn't so arcane and complex, I wouldn't have a job.

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on August 10, 2023 at 5:59

Preaching to the choir here, but the whole mineral / royalty purchase effort is tied to the timing of anticipated production. And the discounted ROI and PV associated with any offer being being.

• With new permits and rigs in the field, the buyers know that gas production in the 20+ MMCFPD range is coming for each well - which gooses up their bids since they have a clearer picture of cash flow in the near term.
• Undrilled locations in any unit also have value - but also the big unknown as to WHEN the wells will be drilled.

It is a chess match - with a lot of moves tied to gas price projections.

Permalink Reply by Bill R on August 10, 2023 at 16:57

Yeah.... and everyone is playing Chess while I play Checkers!   

Permalink Reply by Jesse Joyner on August 10, 2023 at 19:49

Like a geological video game, there are levels upon levels of gameplay. A person may think they have it all figured out, only to discover that there's yet another higher level of interaction -- like a secret button in a computer game. Yes, indeed. The old school landowners who signed peanut leases (like my grandpa and grandma), had no clue what the future would bring. And sadly, those old HBP contracts are still in place for a lot of heirs like myself. So, yes, our grandparents were playing checkers. True. Many of the old folks never even finished high school. And, of course, they also liked to play dominos (and Shoot the Moon) and plain ol' poker, too. Nothing like a friendly game to challenge one's wits. Us good ol' boys like a good game of chance. But then the true chess masters came along, revealing yet another level negotiation/leasing. Yep, the truly smart rednecks lawyered up, and the chessboard really changed. It became a three-dimensional chessboard, with numerous formations and sneaky lease clauses. Wise are those who don't sign their names to peanut deals. Intelligence pays off -- big time. The grandkids went off to college and came back with the proverbial bacon when they returned home, so to speak -- after their LSU professors taught 'em how to properly vet a lease.     

Permalink Reply by Bill R on December 18, 2023 at 7:34

Anyone hearing anything on the status of the additional Sacajawea Wells? 

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on December 18, 2023 at 8:02

Looks like directional surveys filed with Tx RRC for two of the four permits.

No completion reports yet.

Plus no production listed on Tx RRC in any category (including pending)

Permalink Reply by Bill R on December 18, 2023 at 19:17

Thank you!

Permalink Reply by James Michael Nations on March 23, 2024 at 3:45

My cousin lives near the Sacagawea pad and reports that there has been a lot of equipment and activity the last few days

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on March 23, 2024 at 5:48

May be prepping to do frac operations on one or all of the remaining DUC's on the pad - which seems weird considering gas prices right now.

Aethon filed initial "completion reports" on the 5H, 6HB, 7H and 8HB In late January 2024. Reports only show up through drilling to TD and setting casing in the laterals.

Another possible explanation for the activity may be tied to running downhole surveys - cement bond logs or similar wireline surveys. But thinking that this possibility is a long shot.

If your cousin can see any company name info on trucks, that may help us figure out what could be happening.

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