Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Alan Herrington on Friday

Aethon, in particular, has completed a number of prolific Western Haynesville wells.  They seem to outperform Comstock's typical well, perhaps due in  part to a variable choke system that they have mentioned in public comments.

Here are some numbers for Aethon's first Western Haynesville wells.  The date of first production, total production through October 2025,  and the 12/25/2025 expected ultimate recovery (as calculated by Enverus) are shown for each well.

Currie 2H:

9/29/2022 

23.2 BCF

118.3 BCF

River Ranch GU 1H: 

1/24/2023 

18.1 BCF

73.8 BCF

Koda 1H: 

5/4/2023 

19.1 BCF

89.7 BCF

Johnson Ranch 1HB: 

1/5/2024 

15.0 BCF

88.0 BCF

Golf Lake 1HB: 

1/5/2024 

14.5 BCF

103.6 BCF

 

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on Friday

Thanks, Alan.  Those EUR numbers are crazy.  The Western Haynesville has become the next big natural gas play.  The historic Haynesville fairway will continue to do well but the real loser will be Marcellus gas.

Permalink Reply by Rock Man 9 hours ago

I think that these Haynesville / Bossier (and I stress that Bossier is part of this Western Fairway as to target zones) is geared to the Gulf Coast market and especially LNG outlets.

The Marcellus will continue to be the "big dog" in the NE part of the USA due to its proximity to end user market and seasonal demands.

Permalink Reply by Rock Man 9 hours ago

These are going to be great wells - but the ENVERUS EUR projection numbers are theoretical and outlandish (in my opinion). These projections go out 25 to 50 years and do not take into considering the risk of any mechanical issues that can take place with these deep, high pressure, high temperature laterals.

Professional Reservoir Engineers will "clip" EUR projection based on their experiences with other Hz unconventional reservoirs. This is ideally best done after there is a significant time of production (2-3 years).

Plus add in different later stage production profiles / decline parameters.  

Great wells - probably in the 30-40 BCF range depending on lateral length and landing zone / target interval.

Side note - Comstock has just permitted a 3-mile lateral - this will be the longest Hz well in the trend by far.

Longer laterals - higher EUR's / it's all about the mechanical risks of being able to do this in an economically efficient manner.