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Comment by Carter on September 15, 2009 at 7:32

Edit, I meant to write $15.16 area or so on GAZ, buys @ 13.6's ave.

Comment by Carter on September 15, 2009 at 7:29

Taking profits on GAZ right here @ 15.60's (+1.5 points). Should have been up more with what natty did this morning. Disgusted with action on this ETN and how its calculated. Now, natty hitting resistance so flat for now.

GLTA

Comment by Carter on September 11, 2009 at 17:14

Update on UNG... Will begin issuing new shares. Now the premium that I was discussing at 1st of month will dissipate. Let this work out/get digested and then it will be safe to buy and hold longer term.

GLTA

Comment by Carter on September 11, 2009 at 8:22

GAZ trading around 14.6 right now.

Comment by Carter on September 11, 2009 at 8:20

Update: Pullback from this morning in natty, still in GAZ, average mid 13.6's. Will put a stop in around 13.5 in case it moves back down. And if stopped out, will buy again on dips.

Comment by Carter on September 10, 2009 at 11:48

Here is a chart of XNG, which is an index that tracks some of the big names in independent oil and gas. We are definitely at an inflection point.

XNG.png

xng_1.png

Comment by Carter on September 10, 2009 at 11:37

I'd also like to do a comment about NG equities which he said to play the good ones instead of the commodity. While this might be good advise for some, I just don't like buying XTO or CHK when I want to play the straight commodity. Because everything is correlated so close lately, you might have a down day in the market and CHK is down, but NG futures are up. I just like pure play, if I want to play CHK or DVN, I'll play those individually.

Comment by Carter on September 10, 2009 at 11:33

Cramer just did a piece on why UNG is not a good investment. He talked about the same things I said back on 9/1 about NAV premium, etc. He said to sell on this big run up (UNG) as opposed to being bullish on NG and independent oil and gas in general.

I tend to believe, you should hold here if you are already in, and be ready to get out if the trend turns down again. There is just not a good way to play NG except the futures. Since I don't play futures, I use GAZ which is an ETN (basically a financial instrument) as opposed to UNG, and ETF , which actually owns NG futures. With GAZ, I feel like I get a more pure play on natty with less side effects than UNG. It has its drawbacks like being much less liquid, but if you are not trading in and out 50 times a day, it shouldn't matter.

Comment by Carter on September 10, 2009 at 11:02

NG massive run up last few days. Mostly short covering, and don't know if this is the beginning of something bigger, but don't discount anything, because nothing surprises me with this market. Will ride this out and stick with the trend, as long as it lasts. I am using GAZ to play this, was carrying about 10% position into last Thursday, bought earlier last week. Added another 10% on Wed/Thursday of last week. I wanted to add yesterday but price action was not what I wanted to see, so I had to wait until today to add after we took out the highs from yesterday in NG. So I added on with NG about $3.00. Now 50% invested in GAZ, average mid $13.6's. Closed just under $15 on GAZ today, so we will see...

I have been wrong on this before, but today was a real breakout (I think).

Comment by Carter on September 7, 2009 at 18:33

I think we are getting toward the lower end of the range for NG. Ok to probably scale in here with 20%-30%. Short term chart is ugly and broken...give me more than a 3 day rally at the very least to get me more excited. Still a problem how to play it. I've been using GAZ over UNG... seems the lesser of two evils.

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