Thursday, March 4, are we prepared?
IT is predicted by two leading oil traders, Bank of America and Barclays Capital, that oil price will jump to $100 this year. It is worth mentioning here that the price had doubled to $78 last year. Francisco Blach of Bank of America and Merill Lynch predicted that crude oil may touch $105 next year, and by 2014 it may reach $150. He further continues: "Approximately 1.7bn consumers in emerging markets with a per capita income of $5,000 to $20,000 are eagerly waiting to buy cars, air-conditioning units, or white goods," which is one of the prime reasons for this crunch.
The oil spike brought the global economy to a shivering halt in 2008. This time the crunch may hit before the West has fully recovered.
The predicted oil price hike will not spare Bangladesh and other oil importing countries. The cost of every commodity, whether directly or indirectly related to oil, will increase. Additional payment due to added oil price will create enormous pressure on our foreign exchange reserve, which will have adverse effect on our economy. Are we prepared for it?
Bangladesh is sitting on a considerable amount of coal and gas reserves. Having understood that, we have not taken appropriate steps to ensure the best use of these resources in order to reduce our dependency on imported oil. We do not have well thought-out long term plans to optimise our energy resources. Unfortunate but true, a farsighted coal policy has not yet been formulated.
We are in a mess with our natural gas resource. We do not know the precise reserve of gas this country is blessed with. It is time to ascertain precisely the volume of gas reserve we have and utilise this energy resource with extreme care so that it can be fruitfully used for years to come.
Most of our existing power plants are gas powered. The time has come to decide whether we should establish more gas-powered power plants or look for power plants that use some other type of fuel. Since we have a considerable amount of coal reserve, the increasing demand for electricity can be catered to by building more coal-powered thermal power plants. It will reduce the dependency on natural gas. Natural gas can be used in more value added industries like CNG, petrochemical etc. Sensible use of natural gas will reduce the dependency on imported oil.
We must be prepared for the worst before it comes.
Buck
Views: 67
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by essay on -
it's going to happen... if the rest of the world's economies recover, and we get caught flatfooted without a real plan, some folks in the states aren't going to be able to afford to drive their cars.
our economic house of cards was blown down by $147 oil, what will it take next time?
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Permalink Reply by essay on
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that's sort of my point, i mean how long is it going to stay at $80, or even just $100 or less?
what will people be giving up at $120+?
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Permalink Reply by j garrett on
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Fact check - I don't think "most of our existing power plants are gas powered". This does help explain Chesapeake and EOG's (and probably others) move towards oil. It is also great that at least 3 wells have reported recent results of over 700 bbls of oil per day in the Shelby and Sabine County areas. Encana is also rumored to have hit good oil with their Blackstone well in San Augustine Co. We are blessed to be in an area with both NG and oil!
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Permalink Reply by essay on
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"most" is hyperbole, but even without building a single plant we can replace 1/3 of dirty coal with NG:
The maximum coal-fired generation and emissions that may be displaceable by existing NGCC
plants is estimated in Table 3 and Table 4. As noted above, the plants in the NGCC study group
had an average capacity factor of 42% in 2007. As shown in the tables, if the utilization of this
capacity could be essentially doubled to 85%, it would generate additional power equivalent to
32% of all coal-fired generation in 2007, and could displace about 19% of the CO2 emissions
associated with coal-fired generation of electricity.
from:
Displacing Coal with Generation from Existing Natural Gas-Fired Po...
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Permalink Reply by essay on
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yup ng is getting worked over by what is arguably the most influential lobby in the country. big coal knows no party boundaries, either.
i think more and more people are starting to cotton to the idea that there is not such thing as "clean coal." we'll see.
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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on -
Increasing the average run rate for NG fueled power plants from the current 25% to 50% would add ~ 20 Bcfd in new natural gas demand. Of course it would also reduce pollution, CO2 emissions and mountain top removal in the Eastern US.
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