Pressure as an indicator of EUR

I am interested in the importance of initial well pressures as an indicator of well quality.  As I understand it, IP's in millions of cubic feet per day are more frequently used, but as wells are more commonly choked down (looks like encana even is headed to 19/64 more commonly than 25/64 (scanning sonris, last ~50 producing wells), and that should cut mcfe/d roughly in half), it seems to me that initial pressures should tell you a lot too.  I recently got "on the ground" info (I am out of state myself) on #240843 - S7-12N-8W in RR Parish - not in sonris yet, but I heard that the well appears "completely hooked up" with gauges indicating about 8000 psi (so I don't know for sure if this is a capped pressure or flowing into pipeline).  Has anyone worked out EUR's based on initial and/or initial flowing pressures?  I am presuming this is likely a flowing pressure on this well?  I am also guessing that this is a pretty good indicator that this is likely to be a pretty good, though perhaps not hall-of-fame well, and that there is likely to be more expansion into SE RR Parish, and that there will be interest in multiple wells per section?

Thanks much in advance to all experts for opinions :-) - Bob Duke

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Permalink Reply by Doob on September 21, 2010 at 13:08
I haven't updated the attached graph since Feb. but it shows some trends that still hold. The IP increases with depth, but there is tremendous variation. There is a stong correlation of IP and FCP. This is before most operators will choking back wells.
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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on October 11, 2010 at 9:27
Robert, one must look at the combination of initial rate, flowing pressure and choke size to get a feel for a well's quality. That is the reason I generated the "super" list for wells that tested at > 20 MMcfd with a flowing pressure > 8000 psi.

By the way I am hoping the initial test information for Ser #240843 will be posted soon.
Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on October 11, 2010 at 9:58
Hi Les,
Thanks for the input. After posting this, I did more dredging around on the site and elsewhere, and realized I was being overly simplistic in my analysis; this whole area is an interesting combination of science and art. I am of course anxiously awaiting info on this well, but perhaps no more so than all the other folks looking at the hundreds of other wells in some state between "spudded" and "IP reported" :-)
Regards - Bob Duke

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