Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Steve on April 17, 2013 at 12:41

Waharold,

I definitely did not mean to imply that your information or anyone else's is baloney and I apologize if it came across that way. I personally believe 2800 bopd is very possible on these wells, even on a tight choke. Several of the wells in the Eagle Ford shale produced 3-4000 barrels in their 1st 24 hours. Your post was good. Most people accept that posts here will contain hearsay, since no one actually working on the front lines of these wells would be posting information that they know would get them fired. I personally spoke to someone ,possibly the same person, at the well site a week ago and got the same prediction of 2800. It was speculation on his and Encana's part . We will just all have to wait and see.  I am sorry if I offended you. I was not thinking anything negative about your information or your post.

Permalink Reply by Waharold on April 17, 2013 at 15:28

Apology accepted Steve.  The post I found the most offensive was from Spring Branch.  Does he think that George and I are pulling these numbers out of thin air?  He says the comments about the Ash well on this site are a bunch of bologna, enough to feed China.  You admitted yourself Steve, that you spoke to some one at the well site that quoted the same 2800 bbl.  Does Spring Branch think your comments are also bologna?  I know 2800 bbl. seems very high, but as I stated, the 2800 was if the well was not on a choke.  On a choke, it may be half that or less. 

Steve, I'm just trying to report information that I believe to be reliable.  It may not all turn out to be true, but I think some people on this site wants to here the rumors also.  Just not Spring Branch.  Sometimes, rumors are true.

Anyway, this will be my last post on this site, as some people want to make jokes about my comments.  I think I have some pretty good sources of information about the Ash well, but I'll keep that info to myself. 

Also, Spring Branch, if the information posted on the Ash well turns out to be true, then you may not be eating bologna, but you may have to eat a little crow.

Permalink Reply by Steve on April 18, 2013 at 0:44

Please keep posting. I can't speak for everyone but I look forward to hearing what news is circulating. This is a discussion forum not a scientific journal anyway. I am hoping for a well over 1500 bopd on a 15/64 choke, but it could be 100 bopd or less or 2000 bopd or more. The recent Weyerhauser wells have me worried, especially the one where they used 750k lbs of proppant and got 285 bopd - but then, the Crosby (Goodrich Petroleum) well near the Ash wells has everyone encouraged. We need these Ash wells to be terrific or the play may be in trouble, as far as Encana goes at least. IMO

Permalink Reply by Steve on April 18, 2013 at 1:10

Waharold,

This may be some vindication:  http://tuscaloosatrend.blogspot.com/2013/02/encana-weyerhaeuser-60h...

Kirk Barrel's estimate on Weyer. wells were well over 2000 bopd - even though they didn't turn out that way - and he is a noted oil man. He did hedge this estimate but apparently a 2800 bopd well is possible and not a bunch of baloney in his estimation.

Permalink Reply by david crocket on April 18, 2013 at 5:27

I'm with Steve.  I enjoy everybody's posts.  Most everybody is just posting rumors or if not rumors, then just sharing their area of expertise.  So, just overlook what Spring Branch said.  Maybe he had a bad day.  Or maybe he is just blunt.  Blunt is okay, but more than likely he doesn't know anymore than you do.  So, give us the benefit of what you know.  The TMS needs some more optimists. 

Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on April 18, 2013 at 9:15

I'm not shy about eating crow if it's called for and I hope I have to! Caw, Caw, Caw.  I just think the numbers being bandied about before the Ash wells were flow tested were a little rediculous.  It is my opinion only, I have no inside information from Encana.  Kirk Barrell's numbers were apparently way too high on the Weyerhaeuser 60H.  Please don't get me wrong.  I want the TMS to be wildly successful as I own minerals in East & West Feliciana, St Helena, and Amite.  I also own minerals in Energy XXI's Austin Chalk play in Adams County.

Waharold, I meant no disrespect and hope you will continue to post.  I don't intend to feed China, but I do like fried balogna or is that baloney???

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on April 18, 2013 at 11:19

Hey Guys,

I think you are getting a little too upset over rumors. Its been my experience that rumors coming off a well site are nothing but that. The roughnecks love to string the locals along and will say anything to do that. So take rumors with a grain of salt. I to wish the TMS all the success in the world but wild rumors do nothing but throw cold water on the play when they are proven untrue. Just try to be realistic in your expectations.

Permalink Reply by Steve on April 18, 2013 at 12:26

Defending Waharold's post again:  Realistically speaking : It is not hard to believe that the numbers thrown out by well site workers at these wells are potentially accurate, even though they are on the high side for what we have seen so far in the TMS. As mentioned in my earlier comment, EOG for one, has had some EF Shale wells that are hitting these high numbers. For example:  EOG's Gonzales County Henkhaus Units(on 65 acre spacing) #1H,2H,3H,4H,5H,6H, and 7H had IP rates from 2,424 bopd to 3,733 bopd each plus 442 - 679 bpd NGL liquids. Additionally, 5 of their Meyer wells were all either near or over 2000 bopd. One EOG well IP'd over 4000 bopd. The estimate of 2800 for a TMS well with a +5000 ft lateral and 1 million pounds of proppant per stage, in my opinion, is realistic. That said , these Ash wells could be total duds as well.  We do need to be realistic in our expectations but 2800 bopd is a realistic expectation IMO. I know these will are very expensive wells - reportedly well over $20 million on at least one of them. They need a 2800 bopd well.  Maybe it is just wishful thinking, but it is a totally believable rumor and I believe Encana is truly expecting that kind of production. IMO

Permalink Reply by Joe Rollins on April 17, 2013 at 12:44

Waharold, I like any rumors or facts....'Hope springs eternal'. Btw I like fried bologna too....

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on April 18, 2013 at 12:34

Just a point about Eagle Ford IP numbers. EOG (and some other operators) are filing IP rates up to almost 4000 BOPD from Eagle Ford horizontals.

I know the EF is not the TMS, but big flow rates are possible from these nano-P&P frac'd reservoirs

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 18, 2013 at 12:53

IMO laymen are chronically poor judges of who knows what in regard to initial well production. Regarding horizontal wells with multiple stage hydraulic fracture completion designs, drillers know nothing, completion crews know nothing, even employees of the operator know nothing.  The first inkling of initial production would come after the plugs are drilled out and the well flowed.  Until then no one, in this case including the President of EnCana, knows the well results.  The formation is too tight to give any indication other than mud weight during drilling. Any hydrocarbons in place can not flow to the well bore without being fraced.  And the successful communication between the formation and each frac stage can not be determined until all the plugs are drilled out and the well is flowed for some days.  All of these are why knowledgeable professionals such as Kirk Barrel like to discuss IP30 rates.  IP60 and IP180 are even better.  Rumors may have entertainment value for some members.  Wishful thinking is natural.  Opinions will vary and a little disagreement is natural. 

Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on April 18, 2013 at 13:16

Some folks have a dog in the hunt and it may pad their pockets with even rumors.

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