Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by The_Baron on July 20, 2009 at 10:34

All part of the oil buisness.

You just can't watch it every day, I just watch the strike points, everything else is just traders trading to make money.

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Permalink Reply by The_Baron on July 20, 2009 at 10:36

Or more importantly, the weekly storage report:

Summary
Working gas in storage was 2,886 Bcf as of Friday, July 10, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 90 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 589 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 454 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,432 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 116 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 62 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 246 Bcf above the 5-year average of 786 Bcf after a net injection of 19 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 91 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 9 Bcf. At 2,886 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

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Permalink Reply by sesport on July 20, 2009 at 12:24

Baron - This is always one of my favorite graphs, thanks. I see the "roller coaster" is still headed upward, waiting for the thrill of the ride when gas in storage starts going down. Hoping we don't top '07 and '08. :0)

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on July 20, 2009 at 17:23

Sesport, we are taking bets around here on what will be max gas storage level since the amount is unproven. I am thinking something in the 3.8 - 3.9 Tcf range.

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Permalink Reply by sesport on July 20, 2009 at 20:24

Les - That's a "T" as in "trillion?" Anyway, I'm trying to come up with ways to use up gas in storage ... don't want it going up any more, really. :0)

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on July 21, 2009 at 3:21

Sesport, yes - "T" for trillion cubic feet. Current gas injection rates are on the order of 10 - 13 Bcfd. Southern California gas storage is already full.

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Permalink Reply by The_Baron on July 21, 2009 at 3:07

At current pace we will top 07 & '08. Easy.

The curve is also steeper now. The fact we are above the five year average is a bad sign. We are setting up for a classic boom bust cycle, price went up, drilled like crazy, oversupply, price collapses, drilling slows, shortage, prices go up. See what I mean.

By the way, I bet its a little over 4 Tcf for storage.

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Permalink Reply by sesport on July 21, 2009 at 6:35

Okay Baron & Les, there's only one answer to moving this gas out of storage ... everyone fire up every available ng fueled grill, fireplace (especially the outdoor/patio kind) ... let's turn this into a "Tea Party" kind of event. Skip's buying the hot dogs & hamburgers (couldn't get him to spring for steaks & ribs).

On a serious note, has storage ever been "full to capacity," or even close, before in the US? Boy, if this turns out to be a mild winter, and industrial use remains slow, we'll be sitting on this stuff for awhile, don't you think?

thanks in advance guys - :0)

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Permalink Reply by The_Baron on July 21, 2009 at 6:43

We need industrial use to reduce inventory. bottom line.

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Permalink Reply by The_Baron on July 21, 2009 at 6:44

As to storage capacity:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_stor_cap_dcu_nus_a.htm

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/feature_articles/200...

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Permalink Reply by sesport on July 21, 2009 at 7:05

Baron - I agree, but we can't increase industrial consumption because right now that sector has been impacted by the weak economy. The electric sector has probably been impacted by the economy, too, as consumers employ more energy efficient practices. So we continue to get the wild "roller coaster ride" effect.

And thanks for the links (again) below.

best - :0)

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on July 21, 2009 at 7:08

Sesport, this is reason many are predicting a recovery in natural gas prices in 2nd Qtr 2011 rather than 2010.

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