Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Old Scout on September 19, 2011 at 11:10

How should the 753 BOPD be interpreted in this Sonris update ("Estimated Potential")? http://sonlite.dnr.state.la.us/sundown/cart_prod/cart_con_wellinfo2...

Is it the average Anadarko expects during the date range listed (09/06/2011 - 12/31/2011)? Or is 753 the true tested IP, with flow rates dropping off from there.

I dug up this chart from Bakken activity and it notes IP, 30-day average and 60-day average. If 753 is the projected average from SEP-DEC, then 753 might be closer to respectable. Not sure if comparing Bakken to AC is a fair comparison.

Chart: http://www.georesourcesinc.com/News/010411.html

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on September 19, 2011 at 11:22

I don't think its a good comparison. We'll just have to wait and see what the true production is over a period of time. But my concerns are still the same. Long laterals will do more damage in chalk than good.

Permalink Reply by Old Scout on September 19, 2011 at 11:44

Wait and see looks like the only option for now. Personally, I think the D27 is viable at these (vague) numbers and should be sufficient to attract other interested parties to the area. 753 BOPD could be the upper range of the play in the Avoyelles/St. Landry area. Then again, it could be the low range.

I think Anadarko is using the SWAG method for now (Scientific Wild Ass Guess).

Permalink Reply by Old Scout on September 21, 2011 at 7:58

For what it's worth....

In the new Amelia Resources Presentation, he notes the following (Page 8) in regards to TMS activity since 2000... haven't a clue if these could even be considered comparable to Dominique 27. All appear to be TMS wells rather than AC.

• 2000 ‐ Petroquest Lambert H‐1, Amite, MS; horizontal well; cored the TMS; IP’d at
54 bopd and produced 11.6 MBO over nine years; currently produces 1 bopd

• 2005 – Encore Joe Jackson 4‐13H, Amite, MS; twinned the Exxon #1 Jackson 4‐14
that blew out in the shale in 1982; lateral length of 1650’; 3 frac stages; initially
averaged 74 bopd on pump; produced 25.8 mbo over the first two years of
production and has produced 28.8 mbo to date

• 2008 – Encore Weyerhaeuser #1; St. Helena, LA; 17,000 ft with a 4,100’ lateral;
initial potential of 323 bopd, 1 mcfgd, 360 bwpd, 3800 sitp, 3100 cp, 12/64, 20%
bs&w, and 38.7 gravity; The well has produced 27 mbo.

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on September 21, 2011 at 8:56

Jay,

What were the companies doing when the Masters Creek wells were drilled that made such good wells in chalk. It just seems like all of the wells that are drilling now are having problems and this is with new techniques, new technology and new high tech equipment.

Permalink Reply by WHuguet on September 19, 2011 at 11:15

Joe,

Don't rain on the Beverly cajun hillbillies parade just yet!  Still sounds like some speculation with the fairly large IP and allowable discrepancy.  To an untrained person like me 1k BOPD would seem pretty darn good, especially without knowing decline rate or what exactly was done downhole (which may be learned from).  Putting pencil to paper, you could still be potentially looking at over $20 million gross in year 1 (1,000 x 365 x $85 x 70% decline/discount = $21.7 mil).  There is also gas and ngl production not included in the BOPD.  Playing with the numbers, still could be looking at a large range of $10-25 million gross the first year. 

BUT, no new Well Permits or Pre-App unit notices in the area could be a warning sign if it continues. . .

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on September 19, 2011 at 11:30

Will,

The large discrepancy is because the State expected 2000 BOPD and the test is only 753. That is how I read it. I agree with the rest of your analysis. These will be very productive well in the beginning. My second problem though is the large units that Anadarko in requesting. In 20 years the wells will be producing 2 BOPD and holding 2000 acres. I don't think that is good for either the State or the mineral owners.

Permalink Reply by WHuguet on September 19, 2011 at 11:35

Nevermind, found it.

Permalink Reply by bulldog on September 19, 2011 at 11:55

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Until we see a true state potential that includes the choke size and flowing well pressure we don't know what kind of well they have.

Permalink Reply by Frankie Elder on September 22, 2011 at 7:06

I was told that storage tanks are being moved in today.

 

Frank Elder

Permalink Reply by bulldog on September 22, 2011 at 15:12

SONRIS Update on Dominique (still no IP):

 

PERFORATIONS

SERIAL NUM	COMPLETION DATE	UPPER PERF	LOWER PERF	SANDS	RESERVOIR
243229	09/06/2011	15805	22293	AUS C	RB

Permalink Reply by Madman on September 22, 2011 at 16:58

Bulldog - in layman's terms, what does that information indicate, if anything?

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