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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 6, 2012 at 13:11

Charlie Brown and Lucy would throw a big party!  LOL!  Seriously, the price of a barrel of crude is not that important at this stage.  The ability to identify the economic fairway and reduce the well cost to an acceptable level are much more important.  Crude prices probably do need to stay around or north of $100/barrel.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on May 6, 2012 at 14:24

Michael,

Assuming the price of oil stays high, if the brown dense is a go, it would be big for North LA, but probably not as big as the Haynesville in its heyday, if for no other reason than the leasing hasn't really hit the fever pitch, and the area extent, is I think probably smaller.  

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 6, 2012 at 14:47

Assuming a liberal average bonus per acre of $250 for SWN's 560,000 acres of leases, the direct upfront economic impact would be $168 million.  The lease bonuses paid in the first 8 months of the Haynesville Shale Play alone totaled $900 million.  The total economic impact for 2008 including expenditures other than lease bonus payments was $1.3 billion.  Leasing in the Haynesville Shale Play continues even now, three years later.  If the Brown Dense turns into an economic play and generates one quarter of the Haynesville impact it will still be a significant and welcome turn of events.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on May 6, 2012 at 16:00

It might also smooth out some of the bumps being felt due to the down turn in gas prices - e.g. service companies etc being able to serve the Brown dense in 2013 rather than widespread layoffs or sending folks out of state...  

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Permalink Reply by GoshDarn on May 6, 2012 at 19:13

* The LSBD?

* SWN?

* And a cartoon where a kid always pulls the football away from the kicker every time at the last minute?

Don't wanna, um, "rain" on the parade.  I have an opinion, but I'm probably wrong.

Nevertheless -- I would truly like to see a big win for La. and the home team.  True.  Would be cheering big time if a new oil play came even farther south into Bossier P.

But . . .

I'm in wait-and-see mode. 

Personally (and again I'm probably wrong) -- but if I was going to place some risk bets (which I'm not), I'd bet on the TMS and/or the AC (maybe).  Specifically, it seems the TMS has a gambler's shot.  Smells that way.  (But what do I know?)

Still, could be wrong, too.

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Permalink Reply by GoshDarn on May 7, 2012 at 3:16

P.S.:  To be clear (via some bounce-back) -- the above post is specifically referencing the TMS and the AC in S. La., i.e., this guessing has, as far as I know, nothing to do with the HA area, per se.

So, to be clear, being as I can see how my quick post late last night might could be misconstrued via the poor wording, etc.

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