CHK earnings call transcript - 86% first year declines (measured), then 29.5% then 20.5% (pro-forma estimates)

Here's a link to the Q1 2009 earnings call transcript where Cheasapeake execs talk about their Haynesville experience with decline rates.

Good news? Something to be concerned about?

Tags: decline, rates

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What is long term volume (10 years) of a HA compared to Barnett? Decline rate may not matter if volumes are same. Also, more undeveloped land in HA as compared to Barnett would suggest to me more opportunities to exploit and withdraw gas from HA field.
"Yes. Its over 80, about 86. And Brian I really haven't looked at, or have numbers here with me on particular wells. We only have I think, two wells that are over a year old and those would have been our very early wells with not very many stages and not long laterals. Really don't have a well set yet to a have full-year's decline -- as everyone knows the Haynesville now is a very steep first year, and how that will break, is still a little early yet."

In other words, don't bank on an actual percentage yet, its just going to high for the first year (which we already knew).
It will take at least 1,000 wells to have a statistically valid sample to establish decline curves. With over 9,000 wells in the Barnett Shale, E&P companies now have a different type curve for Core, Tier I and Tier II to recognize reservoir differences.

Two early wells mean nothing--positive or negative!

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