http://www.nature.com/news/method-predicts-size-of-fracking-earthqu...

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Here is a new study from NATURE, the science journal.  Scientists say that have come up with a crude method to predict the size of an earthquake from the volume of fluid injected into the earth. NATURE does good reports on everything from dinosaurs, CERN to energy.

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The good news is that the frequency of an earthquake is still low and they are small. They do not claim to be able to predict the probability of earthquakes.  They studied a handful of quakes that have been believed to have been caused by fracking (all in earthquake zones, like where I live)

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The fellow who developed this measurement is the same researcher who created a similar widely used measurement for in underground mining.  This study is coming from within the industry, not outside of it.  It's a very good article (of course, it needs to be peer reviewed and vetted by others)

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I live in an earthquake zone - we are long overdue for another "big one" which happens every 300 years and changes the Pacififc Coast. It's part of the Ring of Fire around the Pacific Ocean - like Japan's are.  Below is a key paragraph from the report. It's predicting the size of the quake - not the likelihood of it happening.

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The researchers found a proportional relationship between the volume of fluid injected and the magnitude of the earthquake.

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“If you inject about 10,000 cubic metres, then the maximum sized earthquake would be about a magnitude 3.3,” says McGarr. Every time the volume of water doubles, the maximum magnitude of any quake rises by roughly 0.4. “The earthquakes may end up being much smaller, but you want to be prepared for the worst-case scenario,” says McGarr. The relationship is straightforward, but it is the first time that anyone has quantified it, he adds.

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McGarr has also developed a similar method — now in standard industrial use — to work out the maximum size of earthquake that can be triggered as ore is extracted in underground mining¹. This work “builds on the same concept”, he says.

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http://www.nature.com/news/method-predicts-size-of-fracking-earthqu...

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