Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 29, 2022 at 14:25

Bill, I paid $2.35/gallon for gasoline last week and expect the price to be lower this week.  The price of crude (WTI) just fell to $76/barrel.  It was over $100 not long ago when we were paying $3.50/gallon.  Supply and demand is always the answer to fluctuations in energy prices although refining issues certainly play a part.  I just got a pretty high natural gas bill but it's been cold and the price of natural gas has been high.  January natural gas prices are $2 lower than December.  That decrease may not show up in my bill until January or February depending on when CenterPoint paid for the gas. 

Oil is a global commodity and the drop in price is associated with a fear that Covid in China is about to drop demand significantly.  Natural gas has always been a domestic commodity but now has some price impact from LNG export.  One of the reasons I post the natural gas monthly settlement prices is to alert members to the fluctuations in price.  Of course the price doesn't appear on a royalty statement for a couple of months but a look at the last two years natural gas prices will give a good example of that fluctuation.

As to rolling black outs, I've had none but then I don't live in Texas or any of the states hit by the bomb cyclone.  Texas regulators have failed to require basic weather protection for all sources of electricity but especially natural gas.  Texans are lucky that most of the recent problems were limited to one company, Atmos.  However Atmos serves a lot of Texas homes.

Permalink Reply by Bill R on December 29, 2022 at 14:33

Yeah, I pay attention to your Post on the prices. Here in our area of Oregon, the price of 87 Octane at our local station is $3.58 per gallon and the price of Natural gas was $18.98 per 1000 CF, but that will be going up by $14.00 plus a 18% per Therm increase. They keep saying that the Supply Chain is starting to run low and we have had some rolling Blackouts to conserve Power. 

Never seems to match what the Government is saying or what the price I am seeing in my Royalty payments.   

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 29, 2022 at 14:41

My oil is produced in my backyard and refined  about six miles away from Sam's Club where I buy my gas.  Location, location, location.  I know that's not much comfort for those in Oregon.  I am curious as to what you hear the government saying though.  As to your price of natural gas in Oregon, It's not based on Henry Hub or Perryville like here.  As to regional prices, I recommend EIA reports.  Use this link to get a regional take on pricing. 

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php

Permalink Reply by Bill R on December 29, 2022 at 18:42

we are the regional hub and distribution center, however our prices run higher than our out lying feeders.

Thank you for your input on it.

Permalink Reply by Bill R on December 29, 2022 at 18:55

We were just informed that our Hydro generated Electricity is going to get another increase on January 1st due to our increased usage! and they are going to add another Tax to our fuel.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 30, 2022 at 3:08

With climate driven drought, hydroelectric power may be less or unavailable for some in the west in the not too distant future.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 30, 2022 at 4:31

The number and seriousness of articles like this are extremely worrying.

The brink of disaster’: 2023 is a critical year for the Colorado River as reservoirs sink toward ‘dead pool’

Excerpt:  Link to full article:  https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/30/us/colorado-river-lake-mead-drought-...

“…the largest manmade reservoirs in the country, could reach “dead pool” in the next two years, where the water level is too low to flow through the dams and downstream to the communities and farmers that need it.”

Permalink Reply by Bill R on December 30, 2022 at 6:26

Our Hydropower comes from the Columbia River System... and we have all of those Solar and Wind Generators that they built with our Tax and Lottery Money. And if the United State Army Corps of Engineers would quit their practice of draining down the Dam Pools in anticipation of Spring Rains, we would have all of the Tributary Reservoirs filled as well. 

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 30, 2022 at 6:49

The management of all those river systems providing electric generation, and water for consumers and business, is being reviewed and changed to address long term drought and water shortages.  Unfortunately the Corps and the federal government are loath to step in as states are the main determiners of who gets how much.  That's the problem on the Colorado and other regional systems such as in California's Central Valley.  States have failed to agree on mitigation actions to the point where things are getting critical on the Colorado and the federal government must step in and enforce a settlement and reduced allocations by state.  There is also the tug of war between agriculture, particularly Big Agriculture, and municipal water needs.   Then there are those consumers and farms that depend on well water.  They are in extreme stress.

Those that don't like federal government intervention should work and compromise to make reductions that work long term.  That isn't the case in most western states that face this problem.  The rivers are drying up and the wells are going dry.  This will eventually impact every major river system and agricultural area in the west.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 30, 2022 at 6:51

Household water wells are drying up in record numbers as California drought worsens

CORNING, Calif. —  12/8/2022

For almost four decades, water flowed faithfully from Fred and Robin Imfeld’s private well here in rural Tehama County, a region where thirsty orchards of walnuts, almonds, plums and olives stretch across thousands of acres.

But that reliable supply of household water began to sputter last year and then ceased completely this summer amid California’s driest three-year period on record.

Now, the Imfelds and other residents here are scrambling to find alternative water sources, and trucking in supplies to fill massive, portable water tanks that have sprouted up throughout the community.

“I call it a silent disaster because it’s not like hurricanes where everything is getting blown over,” Fred Imfeld, 70, said of the well failures. “It’s just like, one after another of these wells just keep popping dry, and if we have another hot summer like this year and last year, or [another year with little] rainfall, it’s going to double.”

Across California, domestic wells are drying up in record numbers because of severe drought and the overpumping of underground aquifers. The crisis has hit rural farming areas particularly hard and left some families to fend for themselves or wait years for permanent solutions as nonprofits, state water officials and well drillers struggle with a growing backlog of assistance requests.

This year, nearly 1,400 household wells have been reported dry — a nearly 40% increase over the same period last year, and the highest annual number reported since 2013, when the California Department of Water Resources launched the Dry Well Reporting System. The actual number of dry wells is likely higher because reporting is voluntary.

Areas with the highest number of well failures included Fresno, Madera, Tulare and Tehama counties — Central Valley regions where surface water shortages have driven growers to drill deeper and deeper irrigation wells.

“We’re probably seeing more [dry wells] now than we’ve ever seen in the past,” said Tami McVay, program director of Self-Help Enterprises, a community development organization that, among other things, operates a tank and hauled-water program for low-income families.

Some 1,600 households are receiving water assistance from Self-Help, and an additional couple of hundred are relying on community water tanks, she said.

Although California declared a decade ago that all residents have a right to clean, safe and affordable drinking water, the number of household dry wells has continued to rise. At the same time, families without water are waiting longer and longer for their wells to be drilled deeper, or for their homes to be connected to a public water system, because of a growing backlog.

In parts of the Central Valley, some residents have been forced to live more than five years on water hauled to temporary storage tanks, McVay said. “Tanks are not supposed to be permanent. Unfortunately, that’s how folks are having to live right now.”

Rural communities are particularly vulnerable to drought and water problems because they lack the finances, organization and infrastructure of urban and suburban areas. They also suffer disproportionately from water affordability issues and well contamination. Droughts and overpumping cause groundwater levels to drop, causing contaminant concentrations to increase.

“The human right to water in California exists, and yet it’s clearly not being met in many areas,” said Scott Jasechko, associate professor of hydrology at UC Santa Barbara. “And if groundwater levels continue to decline, matters will get worse before they get better.”

In wet years, most of the state’s water comes from surface sources, such as rivers, lakes and streams, while groundwater accounts for about 40% of supplies. In times of drought, however, California’s groundwater dependence rockets to 60% or more, increasing demand on aquifers. Those with shallow wells — mostly homeowners — typically run out of water first as aquifer levels drop.

About half of the 3,700 wells monitored by the state are classified as either below normal, much below normal, or at an all-time low.

“It just gives you a sense that we are in unprecedented times with the drought,” said Steven Springhorn, an engineering geologist and technical assistance manager with the Department of Water Resources’ Sustainable Groundwater Management Office.

An estimated 15,000 domestic wells are susceptible to going dry in five years if dry conditions persist, according to state data. Fresno, Tulare, Madera, Tehama and Sonoma counties have the highest concentration of vulnerable wells.

While the historic Sustainable Groundwater Management Act is intended to regulate water availability and help mitigate water scarcity in an increasingly dry California, thousands of people risk falling through the cracks, experts say.

A 2020 study commissioned by the nonprofit Water Foundation found that under that law’s minimum water threshold plans, between 4,000 and 12,000 wells will partially or completely dry out by 2040 just in the San Joaquin Valley — affecting roughly 46,000 to 127,000 Californians who may lose access to their current water supply.

Drilling a deeper well or new well is not cheap. On average, well replacement can cost about $55,000 — far beyond the reach of those families that are already disadvantaged.

“Wells are expensive, and their cost is generally on a per foot basis,” said Justin Jenson, deputy director of public works and water resources for Tehama County. “Oftentimes people are making the decision between what they can afford and what’s long-term sustainable.”

As California enters what is anticipated to be a fourth year of drought, groundwater pumping is likely to intensify, particularly within agriculture.

“Everybody’s sort of been scrambling over what little water there is,” said Ari Neumann, director of community and environmental services for Rural Community Assistance Corp. “And whoever has the deepest well gets the water.”

As global warming stokes increasing aridification across the American Southwest, California is struggling to overhaul its increasingly outdated water infrastructure.

This year, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order meant to protect Californians who rely on groundwater for their everyday needs. The order requires local well permits to align with groundwater sustainability before being approved.

And last month, Department of Water Resources officials approved a new round of funding for the Small Community Drought Relief Program. Some $44 million will be distributed to 23 projects in Tehama, Fresno and other counties vulnerable to water supply issues for new wells, water delivery pipelines and more storage infrastructure, and to support consolidation to increase water supply reliability.

But adaptation will take time, officials say.

“There’s going to have to be some amount of tolerance for taking time to fix these issues,” Jenson said. “The immediate response stuff can only go so far to buy time, but eventually we’ll have to put in infrastructure that resolves these issues, and that could take 10 to 20 years. Those are really the keys to actually resolving the problem as opposed to Band-Aiding it.”

That’s little comfort to those who have lost water.

On a recent afternoon, Fred Imfeld loaded the back of his truck with a galaxy of containers — single- and 5-gallon jugs, empty paint buckets, Clorox and cat litter bins — and drove to a friend’s house a few miles away to fill them with water.

“You definitely get to appreciate water when you do this,” Imfeld said as he uncapped the plastic jugs. “This is a pretty crude way of getting water.”

Since their well died, the Imfelds have been hauling about 100 gallons a week, sometimes more, to meet their daily needs. They use the water to flush toilets, take baths and wash dishes, and also for their dogs, goats and chickens. They’ve also stopped maintaining their pool and watched as their lawn, bamboo thickets and redwood trees have turned to shades of rust.

It’s a stark contrast to the lush green groves of walnut, almond and pistachio trees along Highway 99 to the north.

“I know we’re in a drought, but when you start pumping massive amounts of water, someone is gonna get hurt somewhere,” Imfeld said.