Nice article from seeking Alpha:
It seems official when you turn on the television or pick up the paper, everyone is singing a chorus that natural gas is “set to explode”. Many look at gas purely as an asset that has underperformed in an environment where commodities have soared. The problem is this; the majority of those making these claims do not understand this commodity at all. There is a reason that natural gas has underperformed and continues to do so, contrary to what popular opinion you hear otherwise, the market is always right. In doing research on the internet, I find so many articles about how the current price environment is below breakeven costs for many of the new unconventional plays. The problem I find is the estimates are all old, and based on expectations that are far outdated as we have learned best practices on how to drill and produce these plays. So I am going to update these expected breakevens with what we know at this point. Much of what I will use for estimating comes directly from company statements over the past several months.
Reading analysts expectations from 2008 and largely in 2009, there were many big name outspoken gas experts, claiming that shale would be a commercial disaster. They were largely based on expectations of very low levels of EUR (Expected Ultimate Recovery). What is now taking shape with the passage of time and using the knowledge learned, is the EUR’s are increasing through restricted choke technique and how many stages of fracture stimulations per well, with an aggregate EUR of 6.5 to 7.5 BCFe.
The rest of the article is at the link below.