Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by dbob on September 13, 2012 at 12:51

Storage levels are still well above the 5 year average, and it will take a cold winter to get below it.  

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Permalink Reply by ALongview on September 13, 2012 at 12:56

They are 9% above!  They were 60% above five months ago!  That is a dramatic turnaround already although there is a ton of gas that could be on the market in a minute.  By the way do we have a current consensus price range for operators in the Haynesville/Bossier to achieve a 10% return? Is it creeping down towards $3 as Encana states or is it closer to 4.25 as others have stated in the past.

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Permalink Reply by Keith on September 14, 2012 at 0:37

I would expect that Bernanke's QE-3 could prop up many commodities for a while with no regard to supply and demand. For instance, nickel Prices and nickel inventory are both up in the last month makes no sense, right.

 

Currency devaluation and monetary policy can change the price of a commodity without ever changing the real value of that commodity. Price and value are very different!

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on September 17, 2012 at 16:14

AL, the value varies by operator and area so there is no single answer.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on September 14, 2012 at 3:48

OK go ahead and laugh at me ..all of you. I predict that NG will be close to $5.00 by end of year. Right now the stock market is acting nutty...its the Dow rising..be wary..its funny money.  It's the financials fueling the rise. 

Fuels are where the money is..and it will become obvious very soon.

We have war ships off the shores of Libya...which equates to off the shores of Egypt and Yemen.

My old dad used to say NEVER bluff...always be ready to follow up..so I have to figure our warships are not bluffing today.

The hope would be that the riots in Mid East will just go away.  But that's hope and it goes with the change we are getting...nowhere.

So warships sitting there, Embassies burning, staff slaughtered, and our Marines marching 2 miles thru this with guns w/o bullets...its just a matter of minutes before someone pulls the trigger.

We have to face that the majority of the 9/11 terrorists were Saudis, and Osama was Saudi.  That equates to stupidity if our State Department does not accept that it is all about to blow one way or another.

In the meantime  the USA has enough fossil fuels to be energy independent NOW.  We are going to need these supplies.

Now, paint me a war monger.  Or paint me a woman who has lived a long time and remembers how quickly, in an instant, life as we know it can change.

I won't enjoy the rise in the price of NG.  I hope the rise comes without the horror of loss of more lives. 

But the price of natural gas is the subject here and I see it at near $5 by end of year..for a variety of reasons.

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Permalink Reply by GoshDarn on September 14, 2012 at 7:50

KOH:

It would be nice if your prognostication turned out to be right, i.e., your "wishful" thinking would, indeed, be a boon for so many GHS royalty owners.

True.

Yet the odds are stacked against $5 NG by the end of year.

Not gonna happen.  Even Boone P. would be totally shocked (as would the commodity markets).

In other words, if -- and that's a big "IF" -- if the Middle East doesn't cool (with the fall weather as it always tends to do via such "venting" outbreaks per religious fervor) . . . then the energy commodity, as you know, which spikes is oil, not NG.  NG doesn't have the demand to spike on such a flareup. 

Also, this round of unrest is more of a testing of the "Arab Fall" (i.e., post "Arab Spring") and is not systemic, i.e., this unrest is not ingrained in the Middle East governmental base.  It's about a religious insult (more or less), and such tends to fade fairly quickly. 

Plus, the Saudis have much, much more to loose than us in this upheaval.  They actually need us as much as Israel does.  The Muslim radical street fighters are diametrically opposed to the old power elite of the Saudis (who have our U.S. built jets, etc.).

And just like Jordan, UAE, and others -- the controlling governmental Arab elite wants to hold onto their positions of power via the U.S.'s help.

Hey, it's a complex soup of intrigue.  So what may appear to be black and white (from Tejas) is quite nuanced with many hidden levels of behind-the-scenes alliances.

Ergo, don't bet on $5 NG anytime soon.  Very bad odds.

GD

    

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on September 14, 2012 at 8:02

I stand by my prediction.    We will all be here reading and posting on this site so we will watch it together.

Hope I wrong on the reasons.  It is going to be a hard few months til end of year.  Today I watched news as two huge campuses were threatened..No bomb but the threat is there.  The people of Austin, TX calmly left the area.  There was no panic.  I am so proud of Texans. 

Texas is not that far from what is happening. 

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Permalink Reply by Roy Austin Smith on September 16, 2012 at 4:29

You are used to a govenment that did things. this govenment will not do anything but lie.

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Permalink Reply by Bill R on September 16, 2012 at 12:12

Now that is a one fact you can take to the bank!

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Permalink Reply by luke on September 18, 2012 at 10:39

You got right. D C is the biggest nest of thives on  earth.           Glenn Vance                                                           

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Permalink Reply by dbob on September 14, 2012 at 14:39

Here is a link to an interesting seeking alpha analyst.  http://seekingalpha.com/article/861071-haynesville-shale-production...

the analysis of decline in part II is also telling

 http://seekingalpha.com/article/861081-haynesville-production-incre...

On the flip side, I have seen more interest in planning for future wells, particularly from existing locations.  For the mineral owners, unfortunately, I think if market prices push gas much above $4 in the near term, the rig count will follow swiftly, not just in the haynesville, but in the Barnett, Fayettville, Marcellus, etc. 

I do agree with the idea that devalued currency will bring the price of gas up, but with inflation, it won't be much help.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on September 17, 2012 at 1:49

KOH and  et all others on thread---QE3 will just print money with result of a weak dollar and result in future years marked inflation that is causing all commodities esp metals and crude to increase in price but unfortunately will have minimal effect on domestic Nat Gas. Nat Gas due to decrease drilling in Dry Gas field will decrease supply somewhat but there is still lots of gas with high liquid shale plays like the Eagle Ford,etc. result if cold winter Nat Gas should avg in $3.50 range 2013 and possible see $4 by 2014. Maybe for decade of 2020 will see gas in stable $5-6 range when exports of LNG is in play need to export about 1.5 Tcf/year. My Mother always said " One day you will have a lot of money ,but you will not be able to buy anything with it "

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