Fine: Washington DC and oil and gas, Part 2 by Dr. Daniel Fine <--For the complete article use this link/

Editor's note: This is the conclusion of a two-part article by Daniel Fine. The first appeared on Dec. 28 in The Daily Times' Energy magazine.

A measure lifting the crude oil export ban was approved by Congress in December. OPEC and Saudi Aramco entered the price war against American high-cost shale production in September 2014. This war has consisted of counter strike or retaliation options from the beginning.

Consequently, the congressional  “deal”  lowered the Brent and WPI price of oil by 6 percent in December. Advocates of lifting the crude oil ban were silent or indifferent. Where are they now?

At  least 60,000 barrels were sold to a Swiss trading company by one of the advocate oil producers. We must wait for a first quarter report for details on the pricing and impact to cash flow. Simply put, was the money spent on studies and lobbyists profitable? Highly unlikely.

The year 2016 has opened with both Brent and WPI  prices in virtual convergence at 2008 trading lows. OPEC does not expect recovery oil prices (2010-2014 levels) until 2040 which almost coincides with the Paris objectives of reducing fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the San Juan Basin is active with forced asset sales.

The big energy banks will face stress tests soon which explore price scenarios in relation to oil trading positions and loans to oil and gas producers. Smaller banks, the traditional source of small oil explorers and producers credit will face more severe determinations of debt.

The OPEC  price war for market share continues. Some $200 billion of capital expenditure among the shale or light tight oil American producers has been lost. There is still weak demand, oversupply, and Chinese 

Tags: China, DanielFIne, GOP, Geopolitics, NewMexico, OPEC, OilPrice, Republicans, Russia, WorldNews, More…news, oilandgas, oilexports

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Replies to This Discussion

We all have hashed this out before. Lifting the oil export ban is not a short term play. Looking at the financial return of a first sale compared to lobbying costs is no different than looking at the first week sales of a new business and trying to judge it a success or failure. no business person, or at least no business person who plans on being in business for a period of years, would reach a decision on success or failure based on the first sale, or the first month's return.

Over the next few years, the ability of US producers to export crude will be to our country's advantage.


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