Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Parkdota on December 29, 2010 at 7:56

Les, I'm showing a January 2010 natgas price of $5.67 and it looks like January 2011 will be around $4.20 +/-.  That's a difference of roughly 26%.  Are my numbers incorrect and/or am I missing something?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 29, 2010 at 8:21

Parkdota, the January 2011 contract expired at $4.216 and the January 2010 contract price was $5.814 so this January ~ 27% lower.

Permalink Reply by Scott on December 29, 2010 at 10:22

I stand corrected.

Permalink Reply by P.G. on December 24, 2010 at 4:42

Natgas barely above $4 although oil hits $90 and storage is 1.6% below last year's yet roughly 30% below last year prices......what gives?

 

Maybe when NG starts competing against Oil rather than Coal, huh?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 24, 2010 at 7:17

PG, it will take years to change public perception and increase the direct natural gas share of the transportation market.  The near term opportunity is to increase the PHEV penetration into the light duty vehicle market which will indirectly increase natural gas demand.  The shutdown of high polluting old coal plants and cessation of mountaintop removal would also high have an immediate impact. 

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Permalink Reply by ALongview on December 24, 2010 at 7:49

Les this attached presentation shows a slide that estimates the increase in gas powered electricity generation from replacing old coal plants.  Pretty significant.

Attachments:

• 2.1_Snyder-Wood Mackenzie.pdf, 711 KB

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Permalink Reply by P.G. on December 24, 2010 at 8:37

PG, it will take years to change public perception and increase the direct natural gas share of the transportation market.

At the rate it's going, that's probably right on the money!

However, I doubt if the public would put up with doubled electric bills due to government banning coal, in addition to $4/gal gasoline, for the sake of a few royalty beneficiaries..The public outcries may be to nationalize NG...

NG NEEDS to be promoted as a TRANSPORTATION fuel for the sake of energy self sufficiency and economic reasons. The government will have to play a role in getting it jump started. Banning coal is Not the answer..

 

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 24, 2010 at 11:31

PG, no one is really promoting to ban coal but rather to make coal responsible for the environmental damage related to its usage.  The cost of fuel is less than 50% of the power price for consumers assessing environmental costs would likely only increase the consumer price by 20% - not double the cost of power.

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Permalink Reply by Jack Blake on January 4, 2011 at 6:46

Jack Blake says NG will be at $5.50 in the end of 2011.  Mrs. Jane told him, so it is fact.

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Permalink Reply by The_Baron on January 5, 2011 at 9:07

I predict rising oil prices will squash the economy and gas prices with it.

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Permalink Reply by Jack Blake on January 5, 2011 at 9:15

 

Hmmmmmmmmmmm.......Jack hopes you are wrong:).  The HS drilling is slowing down and this will help the NG glut.  Everyone is ready for a great year of high crude prices, high gasoline prices, a robust economy, and double digit returns in the stock market in 2011.............YAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

and NG at 5.50 in the fall of 2011...............

NG is set to run.................

Maybe not everyone believes this, but at least Jack Blake and Mrs. Jane believe it.......................................

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on January 5, 2011 at 16:20

Fred, natural gas is primarily stored at Bistineau to deal with the large summer to winter demand swing.  So much of the price difference just goes to consumer costs that are regulated.  Some gas would be stored by gas marketers and any profits due to the price spread would not necessarily roll back to the producing company.

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