Our new Global EV Outlook 2024 is out now!
IEA Energy Mix 4/23/2024
The new Global EV Outlook finds that the world’s electric car fleet continues to grow strongly, with sales set to reach 17 million this year. Despite near-term challenges in some markets, the report projects that based on today's policy settings, almost one in three cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost one in five in both the United States and European Union.
Here are some other important takeaways:
“The continued momentum behind electric cars is clear in our data, although it is stronger in some markets than others,” said our Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth. The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion. As a result, the share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue to climb rapidly. Based on today’s policy settings alone, almost one in three cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost one in five in both the United States and European Union. This shift will have major ramifications for both the auto industry and the energy sector.”
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I'm not in the market at this point either, William. I've easily got another twenty-five thousand miles to go on my 2015 Avalon which is the best car I've ever owned. I do expect that my next car will be an EV. At the rate I drive currently, I may not be in the market for a new car until 2029. Considering the rate of evolution in battery technology and charging infrastructure, I think EVs will be an attractive alternative to ICE vehicles long before then. Anyone who values performance will be in an EV long even sooner. The acceleration and handling are far superior to any ICE vehicle that costs less than $250,000. And the cost to fuel and maintain will be much less.
I sure hope costs for EV batteries flattens out - recently saw a post on Linked In showing invoice for new battery / $28,000 for a vehicle with I believe 48,000 miles.
Apr 24, 2024 By: Mark Kane insideevs.com
Plug-in electric vehicle's lithium-ion batteries have become less prone to failures in recent years.
According to Recurrent's study entitled New Study: How Long Do Electric Car Batteries Last?, recently highlighted by the DOE's Vehicle Technologies Office, significant progress has been made after the first several years of series EV production.
Batteries are EV's heart
The most important component of plug-in electric vehicles is the main traction batteries (usually a type of lithium-ion chemistry). A failure of the battery usually affects its output, can immobilize the vehicle and might result in a fire risk.
The data from about 15,000 rechargeable vehicles from model years 2011 to 2023 showed that initially (2011-2015), battery replacements due to failure (outside of recalls like the Chevrolet Bolt EV) were much more frequent than in the later years (2016-2023).
In the beginning, when a limited number of models were available, up to several percent of vehicles ended with a battery failure. According to the data, the worst model year was 2011 with a 7.5% failure rate (aside from recalls). In the next few years, it was 1.6-4.4%, which indicates that several percent of EV users were affected by a battery failure.
As we can see in the chart, starting in 2016, there was a step change in the battery replacements due to failures (excluding recalls). It was as high as 0.5% starting in 2016, but in most cases, it was from 0.1% to 0.3%. That's an order of magnitude improvement.
According to the article, most of the issues would have been covered by the manufacturer's warranty. The improvements come from learning and more mature technologies, including active liquid battery cooling, new strategies of thermal battery management as well as new battery chemistries. We could probably add many more things, as virtually everything become more advanced with very strict quality control.
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