Our new Global EV Outlook 2024 is out now!

IEA Energy Mix 4/23/2024

The new Global EV Outlook finds that the world’s electric car fleet continues to grow strongly, with sales set to reach 17 million this year. Despite near-term challenges in some markets, the report projects that based on today's policy settings, almost one in three cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost one in five in both the United States and European Union.


Here are some other important takeaways:

 

  • In the first quarter of 2024, global electric car sales grew by about 25% compared with the same period last year – similar to the growth rate seen in the first quarter of 2023, but from a larger base. The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020.
  • In 2024, electric car sales in China are projected to leap to about 10 million, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country. In the United States, roughly one in nine cars sold are set to be electric – while in Europe, despite the phasing out of subsidies in some countries, electric cars are still set to represent about one in four cars sold in the context of a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales. [See chart below for more]
  • This growth builds on a record-breaking 2023. Last year, global electric car sales soared by 35% to almost 14 million. While demand remained largely concentrated in China, Europe and the United States, growth also picked up in some emerging markets such as Viet Nam and Thailand.
  • Under current policy settings, the rapid uptake of electric vehicles – including not just cars, but also vans, trucks, buses, and two- and three-wheelers – is projected to avoid the need for more than 10 million barrels of oil per day in 2035. That’s equivalent to all the oil demand from road transport in the United States today.


“The continued momentum behind electric cars is clear in our data, although it is stronger in some markets than others,” said our Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Rather than tapering off, the global EV revolution appears to be gearing up for a new phase of growth. The wave of investment in battery manufacturing suggests the EV supply chain is advancing to meet automakers’ ambitious plans for expansion. As a result, the share of EVs on the roads is expected to continue to climb rapidly. Based on today’s policy settings alone, almost one in three cars on the roads in China by 2030 is set to be electric, and almost one in five in both the United States and European Union. This shift will have major ramifications for both the auto industry and the energy sector.”

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EV industry has a lot of work to do to win the US market. Better battery technology is one key. If these projections are to be realized here, some major upgrades to the electrical grid will be needed. I am not in the market at this point.

I'm not in the market at this point either, William.  I've easily got another twenty-five thousand miles to go on my 2015 Avalon which is the best car I've ever owned.  I do expect that my next car will be an EV.  At the rate I drive currently, I may not be in the market for a new car until 2029.  Considering the rate of evolution in battery technology and charging infrastructure, I think EVs will be an attractive alternative to ICE vehicles long before then.  Anyone who values performance will be in an EV long even sooner.  The acceleration and handling are far superior to any ICE vehicle that costs less than $250,000.   And the cost to fuel and maintain will be much less.

I sure hope costs for EV batteries flattens out - recently saw a post on Linked In showing invoice for new battery / $28,000 for a vehicle with I believe 48,000 miles.

Modern EV Batteries Rarely Fail: Study

The stats were worrying initially, but things improved significantly after 2015.

Apr 24, 2024  By: Mark Kane insideevs.com

Plug-in electric vehicle's lithium-ion batteries have become less prone to failures in recent years.

According to Recurrent's study entitled New Study: How Long Do Electric Car Batteries Last?, recently highlighted by the DOE's Vehicle Technologies Office, significant progress has been made after the first several years of series EV production.

Get Fully Charged

Batteries are EV's heart

The most important component of plug-in electric vehicles is the main traction batteries (usually a type of lithium-ion chemistry). A failure of the battery usually affects its output, can immobilize the vehicle and might result in a fire risk.

The data from about 15,000 rechargeable vehicles from model years 2011 to 2023 showed that initially (2011-2015), battery replacements due to failure (outside of recalls like the Chevrolet Bolt EV) were much more frequent than in the later years (2016-2023).

In the beginning, when a limited number of models were available, up to several percent of vehicles ended with a battery failure. According to the data, the worst model year was 2011 with a 7.5% failure rate (aside from recalls). In the next few years, it was 1.6-4.4%, which indicates that several percent of EV users were affected by a battery failure.

As we can see in the chart, starting in 2016, there was a step change in the battery replacements due to failures (excluding recalls). It was as high as 0.5% starting in 2016, but in most cases, it was from 0.1% to 0.3%. That's an order of magnitude improvement.

According to the article, most of the issues would have been covered by the manufacturer's warranty. The improvements come from learning and more mature technologies, including active liquid battery cooling, new strategies of thermal battery management as well as new battery chemistries. We could probably add many more things, as virtually everything become more advanced with very strict quality control.

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