Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by jffree1 on August 16, 2011 at 2:19

Thanks for the charts, Les.  Are we going to see a rash of "Barnett still biggest" articles this time?

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Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on August 16, 2011 at 2:31

Sorry Les, your charts are obviously a clever communist plot, because Berman says there is precious little gas in those scam shale plays.

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on August 16, 2011 at 2:39

Jffree, no - I think that ship has sailed.

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Permalink Reply by DrWAVeSport Cd1 on August 16, 2011 at 6:24

Les B,

 

I guess It's my day to say "Thanks."  I have used and shared your posts with just about every one I talk with concerning the HS.  And, We appreciate all you do.  Thanks again.

 

 

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Permalink Reply by Scott on August 16, 2011 at 8:04

I agree. The information that Les B provides to us is top notch. We're very fortunate to have him and Jay share their expertise as much as they do. 

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Permalink Reply by dbob on August 16, 2011 at 12:47

the problem, IMHO, is that the Haynesville curve doesn't look to be leveling off...  curious to see how many months before the general slow down affects the curve..

 

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on August 16, 2011 at 16:18

Dbob, you have hit on the key question - at what level will the Haynesville Shale peak?

 

Basically this is a function of production rate and rig count.  I am thinking production will level in the 6 to 7 Bcfd range assuming the rig count decreases down to ~ 80 - 90.  If the rig count stays higher then we are probably going to be in the 7.5 Bcfd zip code.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on August 21, 2011 at 2:08

It would be interesting to have a graph of the cost per BCF EUR by shale play, with a few major conventional plays thrown in.  My perception, which may be wrong, is that some of the shale plays may have a price advantage over the the Haynesville...

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on August 21, 2011 at 4:01

Dbob, attached are a few examples of economic comparisons of different plays.  I have probably seen about 15 of these comparisons this year done by different companies and other parties.  I have also ran some of my own break-even analysis of some of the shale gas plays.

Attachments:

• Break-Even Chart 8-20-11.pdf, 628 KB

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Permalink Reply by dbob on August 21, 2011 at 4:26

Thanks

 

Given the ROR Available in the Haynesville, relative to other plays, I would think that once HBP is complete, the # of rigs in the Haynesville will decline well past 80, but operators will continue to drill some to keep their infrastructure in an efficient utilization range (e.g. CHK's recent alternate unit wells).  

 

Other than that, maybe there will be some opportunities for some of the smaller companies that can't afford to get into the Eagle Ford or Marcellus to pick up some of the fringe acreage and get their modest ROR...

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on August 21, 2011 at 4:41

Dbob, it will be interesting to see where the rig count is by the end of 2011.  Several companies (El Paso, Exco, EnCana/Shell, Questar) have maintained rig counts even though most or all of their acreage is HBP'd.  This may change as their 2011/2012 hedges roll off and if the forward strip exposes them to $4.50 gas prices.  Much is driven by their alternative development opportunities and earnings growth targets. 

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Permalink Reply by Bacon on August 20, 2011 at 23:33

Thanks Les, Great info.

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