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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on July 20, 2023 at 4:54

Good question, Les.  You're right that natural gas in storage is high currently.

Working gas in storage was 2,930 Bcf as of Friday, July 7, 2023, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 569 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 364 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,566 Bcf. At 2,930 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

We're seeing a lot of media attention in places across the world experiencing unusually high temperature and humidity.  152 degrees Fahrenheit  in the middle east and 128 in Death Valley.  Seems records are broken week after week.  It makes sense that this is news.

I did a little research that anyone can duplicate in regard to the current temperature forecast across the US.  Take a look at this national temperature map.  https://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps

The extreme temperatures are basically relegated to the region experiencing the current heat dome.  Much of the country is experiencing normal summer temps.  The temperature here in Shreveport has been hot but not unusually so.  Our humidity has been consistently high for longer than normal which contributes to the feel like temperature.  I got my electric bill today and it was high but not unexpectedly so considering how much I run my air conditioners.

I think the falling rig count which we watch here on GHS will be more impactful in increasing the price of natural gas in time but the lower production volumes take time to work their way through the market as illustrated by the high gas storage numbers.  That's my take but I'd like to hear other opinions.  I would expect slowing injections volumes by now and greater usage would be supporting prices.  We've only got about two more months before traditional injection season ends.

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