Nat Gas Trends and future price predications
Subject: RE: nat gas price trends-- LNG Exports will make Nat Gas a worldwide Commodity
--- here is my update and prediction of Nat Gas future and prices. Nat Gas will be in $3.00-$3.50 range most of 2013 and then very slowly increase as LNG exports starts in 2014-15(maybe sooner if we have a very cold winter again) and then by 2020 Nat Gas will see major activity with exports from Nat Gas rich producers like USA and others will result in Nat Gas being able to be imported/exported where ever the market needs (esp Japan and UK) and LNG will be the harmonizer to make NG a worldwide commodity just like crude oil is today (oil-- It can be transported by pipeline, trucks, train, and ships—soon LNG by ships,etc). Prices will then stabilize in some type multiple of BTU with price of crude oil. If crude stay in $100 range then Nat Gas could easily be worldwide prices (like WTI or Brent 85-100) in the $8 -10 range+/- Lots of money can be made by all with these type prices. If We can get Obama out maybe sooner. Can you believe Obama denied XOM permits to build LNG plants on west coast to fulfill contract it has with Japan for Nat Gas.
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Martin on
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Adubu --
Do you have a citation or reference for the statement that Xom /Exxon has been denied permits for the west coast LNG plant construction?
jm
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Permalink Reply by Bill R on
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Party Chairman O'Bummer backed this groups "Flow" play on our having LPG facilities put in Oregon... there is still a movement to have sites put in both Coos Bay and Astoria.
There are many factions against it, but this FLOW* is the main party pooper;
http://www.mrgfoundation.org/grantees/profiles/protecting-oregon-ln...
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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on -
Bill, economics and location are likely to kill both the Jordan Cove and Oregon LNG projects anyway. Both are greenfield projects and will be very expensive compared to the Gulf Coast brownfield export projects that already have ship berths, LNG storage tanks and feed gas pipelines. The Western Canada LNG export projects are better positioned to access the major natural gas supply basins.
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Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on
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Try also
http://www.hamiltonproject.org/papers/a_strategy_for_u.s._natural_g...
The linked articles at the bottom of the page include some good slides for more economic approaches if you want.
You need to focus on the LA/TX facilities rather than worrying about the Oregon situation - very different markets. You will soon have more trouble for ExpLNG with Brazil-Columbia...
Tom
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Permalink Reply by adubu on
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Tom---Yep good stuff in this article--- If We can someway get the Gov. out of the way and let the markets forces take care of problems if would be wonderful--- We can start by firing Obama and the Democratic Senate in Nov.2012 --- O sorry Les B I am off topic again. LOL
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Permalink Reply by adubu on
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Martin---Rex Tillerson, CEO of XOM dicussed it at the annual shareholder meeting last week. XOM alond with CHK, APC, EOG, and other desire to do the same. The comment that Obama denied the permits for west coast LNG plant was announced on CNBC last week I was watching at time of comment by Mr. Tillerson. LNG has permits to build plant on Gulf Coast (2006) now under construction.
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Permalink Reply by Martin on
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Thanks Adubu --
I'll have to send Obama an email.. At least he'll know someone is tracking this topic.
Was there any rational for the permit denial?
jm
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Permalink Reply by adubu on
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Parkdota--- I should have reference your prior post for Martin. Old man forgot!!! I am some what taken back by T. Boone Pickens comment, but understandable he has other profit reasons since he owns Clean Energy stations for CNG, etc We are giving it away now at $2.25 so do not understand Pickens comment about giving our stuff away for sure could get a higher price if we could get it to Japan today. They are paying 16-18 now and the cost to convert the gas to LNG and ship it only about $2 mmcf so = $4.5-$5 without any profit margin to shipper and LNG plants. So if charge Japan $11 then well head price could be $8 or so :)----every one HAPPEN
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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on
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Adubu, you have under-estimated the cost of natural gas liquefaction and shipment to Japan.
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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on
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Martin, there has been no permit denial by President Obama.
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Permalink Reply by adubu on
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Les B tell Mr. Tillerson that Obama has not denied any permits for he will be happy to know that---think you getting too literate for the deal of LNG to Japan was simple in the talking stage but the Obama administration had something to say early about it. So true no permit app in writing had occured to date. If you have better cost of shipping LNG post the info please for I remember data few years ago in WSJ that talked about Qatar could produce and ship LNG at $2.50 and still make money. Yes that what I said LNG had permits for Sabine Pass and they were scheduled to start construction this year with exports to start in 2015
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