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Permalink Reply by adubu on September 19, 2013 at 5:48

Also in general September is low each year in Nat Gas prices-- so this is postive and maybe will see prices in low to mid $4 range all of 2014 as long as we gets some cold weather this winter

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Permalink Reply by dbob on September 19, 2013 at 14:17

Adubu

Right now, the macro-economic picture is going to play a bigger role in pricing than storage/weather. Cold weather would help, but for 2014 to stay above $4, we need more demand.

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Permalink Reply by P.G. on September 20, 2013 at 1:57

Does winter even have much effect on prices anymore?

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Permalink Reply by adubu on September 20, 2013 at 6:40

PG-- Yes Cold Weather increases demand without question. The only time storage decreases is in winter

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on September 20, 2013 at 8:34

the gas market today for the upcoming winter reflects price expectations of a more or less normal winter.

in those winters where it gets very cold, very early, i.e. the second half of Nov, the NY/NE and/or the Chicago customers will have to pull hard on their market zone storage. & if that happens, typically, everyone will freak-out and their citygate prices and even field prices will make quite a move for remaining Nov dailies, the Dec contract, the Jan contract and possibly as far out as Feb & Mar. so, at this point in time the market is now assuming that the early cold weather is a harbinger for the rest of the winter. 

markets are supposed to be rational. i can't speak for other markets but the gas market always, always over reacts and sometimes it even reacts incorrectly. hurricanes, for instance; get a storm in the gulf and prices will spike. however, the typical GOM one will result in more demand destruction from power line outage and where lines aren't down, reduced ac load because of two to three days of cloudy skies. this will more than offset the temporary shut-in of production. the market never seems to remember that it's the unusual storm that damages/destroys much offshore infrastructure.

i hope the preceding doesn't sound like a lecture. i'm new to the board, prices are something i've been around and being "the new boy roy", i want to try to contribute.

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Permalink Reply by Greedy Landowner on September 20, 2013 at 11:36

Thanks for sharing your experienced opinion with us.

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on September 20, 2013 at 11:40

i've just re-read that which i wrote a couple of hours ago. in the next to last line of  the second paragraph, please imagine the "this" to be "that". i was examining/discussing a hypothetical, not what may or may not occur this winter.

i apologize for not having properly proof-read my earlier submission.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on September 20, 2013 at 12:08

Jim-- if hurricain had come in gulf this summer ( but did not) would have had much less effect on supplies and prices as compared to 3years or > since supply from gulf much less % since on shore shale gas is major source now both dry and wet gas fields has replaced off shore---welcome to GHS site look forward to you comments on any subjects discussed here and share your knowledge

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on September 20, 2013 at 14:05

i totally agree; with both your last post and all of your previous ones in this thread. 

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