Thoughts on this? From The Energy Report

T. Boone Pickens and Porter Stansberry provide very few facts to support their statements. I use production history from shale plays that are currently in production. For the Barnett Shale, I use production history from the Texas Railroad Commission. For the Fayetteville Shale, I use production history from the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission.

On the Haynesville...

I have examined the Department of Natural Resources' production reports for the Haynesville Shale. While there has been a big ramp-up in shale gas production, the evidence indicates that current production levels are not sustainable. In my book, I give substantial evidence that there may be 125–150 Tcf gas produced from shales in the future. That is a far cry from a 100-year supply. 

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Thanks, Mark.  Pretty good synopsis in three short paragraphs.  I think we often overlook the dynamics associated with corporate issues such as street coverage/analysis, share price and management compensation.  Impressing the street obviously isn't always the most prudent metric used in management decisions.  I recall a quote from McClendon quite early in the Haynesville Play that, to paraphrase, basically described E&P companies going forward as the the "shale haves" and the "shale have nots".  The implication was quite clear and I think the industry, especially mid-majors focused on natural gas, bought it and acted accordingly.  They all wanted to discover the next big resource play and to have a presence is multiple plays favored by the street and investors.  I hope improving and more stable prices along with increases in F&D efficiencies will ultimately prove the Haynesville Shale Dry Gas Play to be worth the big bucks thrown at it in the beginning. 

There is at least one additional dynamic in most unconventional plays that bears consideration, although it was obviously not a primary consideration when leasing the Haynesville - other reservoirs/reserves that get HBP when the primary target is drilled.  

Cotton Valley is a primary example, but you might also get James Lime, Fredricksburg, Pettit, Hoston, etc.  the Eagle Ford has Austin Chalk, Buda, Edwards, etc, the Marcellus has several additional zones etc.  

In the Haynesville and Eagle Ford, these extra resources are bonus, but may provide a long term inventory of targets.

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