The future of natural gas in North America

January 2020 | Article


Excerpt.  “What role will natural gas play in North America’s energy mix over the next decades? And how can players position themselves to manage threats and capture opportunities from the energy transition?

Industry discussions about the future of gas in North America are polarizing. On one hand, the shale revolution keeps delivering, displacing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports since the late 2000s, as abundant gas resources and technological innovation drove costs down. In the past few years, shale has entered a new phase with the rise of LNG exports from North America. By 2023, North America is expected to head the list of the world’s top LNG exporting regions. On the other hand, as state-level decarbonization policies ramp up, the demand for natural gas in key segments such as power generation and local distribution companies (LDC) is expected to decline.

These contrasting outlooks reflect different perspectives and interests of stakeholders, regions, and segments. An objective picture requires a comprehensive analysis of gas demand and supply that considers how and where they may be affected by decarbonization efforts. To that end, we modeled power and gas value chains until 2040 to explore how today’s policies will likely play out as well as what actions different players can take to position themselves appropriately during the energy transition.

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