US Natural Gas Production Continues to Climb (3/6/11)

The latest information from the EIA indicates US natural gas production continues to increase even with the reduction in rig count.  The increase is driven somewhat by Louisiana (and the Haynesville Shale) as the state has now moved into second place behind Texas among the states in production.  On a year-on-year basis US production is up 5.6 Bcfd with Louisiana accounting for 2.4 Bcfd or 43% of this increase.  Essentially all of the Lousiana increase is directly related to the Haynesville Shale production.

 

I have attached a graph that tracks the US gas production and gas rig count since January 2008.  This information shows the gas rig count would likely need to decrease by about 200 to ~ 750 to result in a flattening of US gas production.  

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Permalink Reply by Scott on March 6, 2011 at 13:35
And I don't see our gas rig count dropping another 200 gas rigs anytime soon. 
Permalink Reply by Parkdota on March 6, 2011 at 14:01
But Berman said last year the HA peaked.....I don't understand? lol just kidding....Berman is such a fool.
Permalink Reply by P.G. on March 6, 2011 at 14:17
Out of the known HS, how much of it (% wise) has been produce that could be produced?
Permalink Reply by kittycatmama on March 6, 2011 at 14:28
Could the turmoil in the Mideast help US nat gas? I was surprised to read that a lg. portion of Europe's nat gas came from Libya. That source to Europe has been cut off. Could the US step up as a provider for Europe
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on March 6, 2011 at 15:04

KCM, only ~ 2% of the natural gas consumed in Europe originates from Libya so not a significant source.

 

It is doubtful the turmoil in the Middle East will have any impact because US natural gas prices are unrelated to internation crude oil prices (or international natural gas prices).

Permalink Reply by kittycatmama on March 6, 2011 at 17:00
libya supplies 13% of Italy's gas which has been cut off. Italy is now getting additional shipments of gas from Russia to supplement the loss from Libya. Apparently Libya has been developing their nat gas so they can use that for power and export more oil. isn't that interesting
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on March 6, 2011 at 15:14
PG, estimated cumulative production from the Haynesville Shale is ~ 1.4 trillion cubic feet (1.4 Tcf) which is less than 1% of the 150 to 250 Tcf of the potential recoverable resource. 
Permalink Reply by P.G. on March 7, 2011 at 3:15
And that's figuring current technology... I wonder what recovery will be in ten or twenty years?
Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on March 7, 2011 at 3:47
PG, economics (price) are more of a controlling factor than technology.  The higher end of the range would be primarily driven by higher natural gas prices in the future resulting in a larger development area and slightly tighter well spacing. 
Permalink Reply by P.G. on March 8, 2011 at 3:51

Unless there's some kind of break though for some other type of transportation fuel, I think Natural Gas will eventually be used and demand will go up encouraging more developments in NG technologies.

As far as fracing goes, how efficient are they with today's technology. I mean how much gas are they leaving behind that isn't being released from the fraced material % wise? Are they leaving more NG in the ground than they are extracting?

Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on March 8, 2011 at 3:56
PG, estimated recovery is 25% to 50%.  This is typical for an unconventional gas play due to the low porosity and permeability.
Permalink Reply by P.G. on March 8, 2011 at 4:00
Perhaps some day they can come up with a technology, chemical to completely disolve, etc. that can recover more NG.. Not much incentive to do so now though..

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