Just when we thought US natural gas production was declining, the lower 48 rate increased in April according to recent EIA information.  April's production was up by 0.6 Bcfd to 72.5 Bcfd after declining over February and March by 0.8 Bcfd or 1.1%.  Texas (+0.4 Bcfd), Other States (+0.4 Bcfd) and Oklahoma (0.1 Bcfd) all had increased production. 

 

April's production is also 4.6% higher year-over-year.  Only GOM (-16.5%), Wyoming (-4.3% and New Mexico (-2.7%) had lower production rates than April 2011.

 

Louisiana natural gas production has decreased 0.9 Bcfd since November 2011 but decreased only 0.1 Bcfd in April.

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Les, it must be 1. Uncompleted backlog and 2. Associated gas with liquids. HA down from 186 to 32. Barnett almost all oil window. Must be Eagle Ford associated gas.

In the LA Haynesville as of the end of June (July 2 report date) there were only 26 wells being drilled.  However there were 315 wells Waiting On Completion or in Completion Operations.  That is about 13% of the total HA wells drilled since the play began in 2008.

http://dnr.louisiana.gov/assets/OC/haynesville_shale/haynesville_mo...

Skip, actually there only 18 wells being drilled in the Louisiana portion of the Haynesville/Bossier Shale play at the end of June. 

 

The DNR's count for WOC wells looks overstated also as the number is closer to 250 or ~ 9.4% of the total wells.  

Les, I'm less interested in an exact number as I am the significant back log of wells not completed and turned to sales.  Whether 12.89% or 9.4% it's still a large percentage of total wells that are not on line yet.

WR, I believe the primary contributing factor is the continued high level of activity in gas drilling that has associated condensate and natural gas liquids production.  This is evidenced by the gas wells being drilled in the Marcellus Shale and Granite Wash plus the rich gas areas of the Eagle Ford Shale, Barnett Shale and Woodford/Cana Shale.  The drilling in the Eagle Ford Shale and Barnett Shale oil windows is also contributing but to a lesser extent. 

 

Production was also increasing in the dry gas area of the Marcellus Shale and the Fayetteville Shale.  I will take a closer look at Arkansas and Texas to update my information.

 

  

Les, from a storage perspective even though production is increasing it appears as if demand is also up even if via the displacement of coal.  From a short term outlook it appears as if the heightened storage levels are and can be trimmed down by the fall/winter with companies curtailing supply and not bringing wells on line.  Does the data you have raise any concerns that might alter the storage levels coming down to more historical levels?

Business--------------------------Per the Texas RRC Texas nat gas April 2012 down ~ 37 BCF from April 2011

Posted 10:45 pm  Sunday, July 08, 2012

Texas Average Rig Count As Of June 22 Was 938
The Texas average rig count as of June 22 was 938, representing about 49 percent of all active land rigs in the United States, the Texas Railroad Commission reported.
In the last 12 months, total Texas reported production was 437 million barrels of oil and 7.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
The commission's estimated final production for April was 41,711,182 barrels of crude oil and 491,644,000 Mcf (thousand cubic feet) of gas well gas. The commission derives final production numbers by multiplying the preliminary April production totals of 35,939,326 barrels of crude oil and 424,856,550 Mcf of gas well gas by a production adjustment factor of 1.1606 for crude oil and 1.1572 for gas well gas. (These production totals do not include casinghead gas or condensate.)
Texas natural gas storage reported for May was 397,325,849 Mcf, compared to 395,952,262 Mcf in May 2011. The June gas storage estimate is 402,021,384 Mcf.
The Texas Railroad Commission's Oil and Gas Division set initial July natural gas production allowables for prorated fields in the state to meet market demand of 10,530,548 Mcf. In setting the initial July allowables, the commission used historical production figures from previous months, producers' demand forecasts for the coming month, and adjusted the figures based on well capability. These initial allowables will be adjusted after actual production for July is reported.
The commission issued a total of 2,530 original drilling permits in May, compared to 2,306 during the same month last year. The May total included 2,301 permits to drill new oil and gas wells, 62 to re-enter existing well bores, and 167 for re-completions. Permits issued in May included 694 oil, 169 gas, 1,569 oil and gas, 68 injection, six service and 24 other permits.
Texas preliminary April crude oil production averaged 1,197,978 barrels daily, up from the 958,283 barrels daily average of April 2011.
The preliminary Texas crude oil production figure for April was 35,939,326 barrels, up from 28,748,479 barrels reported during the same time last year.
In May, operators reported 887 oil, 336 gas, 32 injection and one other completion compared to 353 oil, 152 gas, 36 injection and one other completion in May 2011.
Total well completions for 2012 year to date are 6,246, up from 3,575 recorded during the same period in 2011.
Operators reported 1,122 holes plugged and one dry hole in May, compared to 516 holes plugged and one dry hole in May 2011.
Texas oil and gas wells produced 505,775,608 Mcf of gas based upon preliminary production figures for April. That is down from the April 2011 preliminary gas production total of 542,087,609 Mcf. Texas preliminary April total gas production averaged 16,859,187 Mcf a day.
Texas production in April came from 140,477 oil wells and 86,026 gas wells.

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