Would appreciate comments from the Forum on Math & Cost associated with the drilling of Haynesville wells at current prices.
With well cost averaging $10M and current spot market gas prices fixed at $2.09 (reaching lower every day & with no end in sight), why would companies be drilling alternate unit wells in this enviornment? Encana's $5 hedging disappears at the end of this year; CHK has no gas hedged & I'm guessing EXCO, Shell, BHP, etc.'s position can't be much better. For the benefit of discussion, let's say $4 hedge price is engaged - the average Haynesville well of 3 - 4 BCF, after royalty is paid, makes little or no profit for the operators.
LesB-- I assume some drilling maybe due to JV agreement that Cap-Ex must be drilled. With one year futures decreasing to ~$3.5 at what price will rigs stop drilling in the Haynesville? Do you think drilling of one well to hold leases about done? If so, we will not see any new leases for peroid of time I guess untill prices get back to 4-5 with prediction that demand will be enough to keep it in that range or better. So we maybe entering that peroid soon of no drilling in dry gas for several years. The gas will always be there so operators will return one day when market demand returns. Not unusal for Oil & Gas Business, I sure you understand the business better than me. New Leader in DC will help.
Adubu, only Exco has JV capex so that may be support for their 6 rigs but this is their primary earnings play. Chesapeake and EOG (3 rigs each) appear to still be drilling to HBP acreage. Maybe 5 of the remaining rigs could be for HBP. Anadarko has 6 rigs working on their "liquids" play.
Later in the year we may see the rig count down to the 10-15 range depending on Exco's plans.
Les, you didn't address Petrohawk/BHP and their rigs, which in my area are drilling alternate unit wells.
SB--like LesB said they (BHP) probably have some good hedges left to fill.
Maybe they don't have so great of a hedge, but are commited to provide certain volumes of gas that only by drilling new wells can they meet their quota?
SB, Petrohawk is a mix with three of their seven rigs currently drilling HBP wells. I believe some of their activity may be related to Mike Yeager's slow acceptance of the need to back off dry gas drilling in the US. With BHP the Haynesville Shale financial performance just gets buried in the overall company results which are primarily mining related.
LesB-- also did not PXP and CHK have large JV-- wonder if drilling time was optional based on market conditions or had to be drill on a time schedule? Yep Doug Miller EXO all Nat Gas makes you think they may go belly up soon. They got lots of good assets in play especially over in Nacgodoches and San Augustine area plus La. Haynesville core area. May have to sell out at bottom to cover debt. SAD
Adubu, in August 2009 Plains agreed to accelerate the drilling carry payments to Chesapeake so nothing left now.
LesB--- Looking at big picture of recent threads posted if appears the Haynesville play is winding down for a peroid of time until Nat Gas get above $5 and stays==== only Liquids and Oil in other formations in area will be drilled presently :((
Adubu, all one has to do is follow my weekly rig count posting to see the trend for the last several months.
LesB-- YEP Your rig count tells it all-- trend is for sure down down down--- :(
The only reason any company would be drilling alt. unit wells are for financial spreadsheet purposes. It's all about accounting.