Oil plummets 30% as OPEC deal failure sparks price war

Published Sun, Mar 8   Pippa Stevens  cnbc.com

Oil prices plunged 30% in early trading after OPEC’s failure to strike a deal with its allies regarding production cuts caused Saudi Arabia to slash its prices as it reportedly gets set to ramp up production, leading to fears of an all-out price war.

International benchmark Brent crude futures plummeted 30% to $31.02 per barrel, its lowest level since Feb. 2016. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 27% to $30 per barrel, also its lowest level since Feb. 2016. WTI is on pace for its worst day since January 1991 during the Gulf War.

“This has turned into a scorched Earth approach by Saudi Arabia, in particular, to deal with the problem of chronic overproduction,” Again Capital’s John Kilduff said. “The Saudis are the lowest cost producer by far. There is a reckoning ahead for all other producers, especially those companies operating in the U.S shale patch.”

After the initial drop the losses were pared somewhat, with each contract trading down slightly more than 21%. 

On Saturday, Saudi Arabia announced massive discounts to its official selling prices for April, and the nation is reportedly preparing to increase its production above the 10 million barrel per day mark, according to a Reuters report. The kingdom currently pumps 9.7 million barrels per day, but has the capacity to ramp up to 12.5 million barrels per day.

I think it is worth pointing out that most of the oil coming out of the Permian Basin is West Texas Light (WTL), not West Texas Intermediate (WTI).  WTL sells at a discount to WTI, so somewhere below $30/barrel.  With the exception of the Super Majors, Majors and a quite small handful of Mid-Majors, all others are at risk of bankruptcy in the short term baring some turn around.  For those interested in a silver lining, this should significantly reduce the "associated gas" that is holding natural gas prices down.  So potentially good for gas focused companies but not good for LNG exporters.  This is quite possibly a Black Swan event for the industry.  Stay tuned.

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U.S. markets crater as coronavirus-sparked oil war sends prices spiraling

The Dow plunges more than 1,800 points in a brutal global sell-off, and treasury yields dive to new lows, amplifying recession fears

Excerpt.

Cratering oil prices might please consumers at the pump, but they would be devastating for oil companies and global markets, which have already been ransacked by coronavirus panic. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, plunged more than 21 percent to $35 a barrel, its biggest drop since the Gulf War. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude, largely used in the United States, fell from about $41 to $32 a barrel Sunday night, a low not seen in four years.

Global markets were apoplectic. Japan’s Nikkei closed down more than 5 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index shed more than 4.2 percent. European markets were tumbling more than 7 percent across the board in midday trading.

Panic pushed the yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury below 0.4 percent for the first time in history Monday as investors fled for safe havens. The trajectory could be an ominous sign of a weakening economy, because a low yield can indicate a lack of confidence in economic growth. Yields decline as bond prices rise. Gold, another safe haven, was up 0.4 percent in early trading.

 

Falling oil is a shot in the arm for U.S. gas drillers

By Sayer Devlin on 3/6/2020 worldoil.com

NEW YORK (Bloomberg) --As the collapse of OPEC+ talks on production cuts sent energy stocks into a tailspin, one corner of the industry defied the rout: U.S. natural gas drillers.

Shares of gas producers including Cabot Oil & Gas Corp., Southwestern Energy Co., Range Resources Corp. and EQT Corp. climbed on speculation that the nosedive in crude prices will force oil explorers in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico to pull back. Soaring gas output from the basin, where the fuel is extracted as a byproduct of oil drilling, has contributed to a massive glut.

“The collapse in the crude market is going to create a more constructive gas setting,” said Matthew Portillo, managing director of exploration and production research at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. “Slowing U.S. growth is going to significantly affect associated gas production.”

U.S. gas producers still face obstacles to recovery, however. Prices for the heating and power-plant fuel are trading near four-year lows as output from shale basins continues to climb, albeit at a more measured pace. The coronavirus outbreak has sapped global gas demand, prompting buyers to refuse U.S. cargoes of the fuel and stoking concern that American exports will slow.

Note: This article was published on 3/6 and does not account for the announcement of Saudi oil price cuts.

I doubt that any of the Haynesville operators will get a significant bump in stock price.  I think they may enjoy a higher price for their un-hedged natural gas production.  And more importantly, so may royalty owners.

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