Based on Petrohawk's latest announcement about dropping their rig count soon, I am wondering if they'll end up drilling on our land before our lease expires in May or so. Could someone tell me what happens then? What is the likely-hood some other company leases it? Would we get the same bonus payment? Just wondering. Thanks for any info you can provide.

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Frank, the answer to your questions depend in large part of the location of your minerals. Please post the section-township-range.
Thanks, Skip. I think it's 32-18N-16W and 4-17N-16W. 
Frank, the area of your minerals is the far NW corner of the Haynesville Play as it is currently defined. Both of the sections your mention are under HA unit orders to Petrohawk. There are only two completed wells in the immediate area. One by Petrohawk and one by Goodrich. These wells reported initial production in the 10-13 MMcfd range on relatively open choke settings and average pressures. At current gas prices they are barely economic. Petrohawk has no wells permitted or drilling this far north at this time. Goodrich is the only other operator active in the area. The Goodrich well in S14-17N-16W (s/n 240316) has not been announced as complete but has a well test that shows IP of 12.15 MMcfd on a 20/64" choke setting and 5400# flowing pressure. This is a relatively good average Haynesville Shale well. The more important well for your area may be the Goodrich well in S35 - 18N - 16W which would be drilled from S2 - 17N - 16W and was permitted on 6-30-10. It's not clear to me if this area is sufficiently high on Petrohawk's priority development list to be drilled by next May. If they should choose to spend their development dollar elsewhere your minerals may still be of interest to Goodrich or EXCO.
Thanks, Skip. You have been helpful, as always.
Does the decrease in Petrohawk rigs mean that tracts in the core area (Red River/DeSoto Parish line) of the play are likely not to be drilled or leased anew?
IMO opinion Petrohawk and other operators will make a commitment to drill all of their best rock prior to leases terminating. And Red River and DeSoto have some of the best rock. If any acreage is allowed to lapse, it will be in more marginal areas.
Frank to answer another part of your question, if your lease expires its back to square one. Any company could including who you are leased with now can make a new offer for more or less.

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