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Permalink Reply by John Smith on September 28, 2013 at 3:11

Oil 100 plus a barrel
NG 3.69 Spot price

Do the math

Oil is the answer and if you are 100 per cent it is Eaglr Ford "Bonus"

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Permalink Reply by 1qead70mqm01c on September 28, 2013 at 13:10

True, Jay.

Per certain geopolitical assessments/configurations of what the 5-year future may bring to the Middle East and per the EUR value of the various U.S. of A. conventional/unconventional oil reserves (if such a label can be applied to the old & new oil plays/concepts/trends, etc.) -- then there is, in fact, a strong modeling for the price of oil to drop, not go up.

Indeed, there is an unpublicized scenario for OPEC to un-choke the spigots (under the framework of a possible new "peace" umbrella in the Arab region), so as to protect OPEC's market share in an attempt to dissuade the unconventional plays from easy development dollars.

If true, then oil futures might begin a slow decay downward in the near term, with an uncertain bottoming sometime in 2014.

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Permalink Reply by olddog573 on September 29, 2013 at 2:38

Didn't oil reach 45/barrel during the late 90's, i think thats what it was when I left Baroid, well, I left but it was not my choosing to leave LOL.  

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Permalink Reply by 1qead70mqm01c on September 29, 2013 at 3:18

If oil does trend down to around $80 within 6 to 8 months (or so) -- it might base somewhere between $60 and $76 for an extended run.

And even though OPEC has much less sway now than it used to, the cartel's ability to flood the market with extra supply so as to garner an increase in petrodollars (and thus stimulate certain economies of choice) -- is a harbinger that might make the news headlines relatively soon if the geopolitical cards flop as predicted.

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Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on September 29, 2013 at 6:54

Olddog oil was selling in the teens and 20s throught most of the 90s then dropped below 10 bucks at the end of 98 and first of 99. It didn't get into the 40s until late 2004 and early 2005 then into the 50s in the second half of 2005 then it started a pretty steady climb until the end of 08 when it dropped back into the 30s for a few months. 2008 average was around 91 where 2009 was around 53.50.

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Permalink Reply by olddog573 on September 29, 2013 at 7:13

well teens and 20s would explain why they put 40,000$ (they claimed) and 3 months worth of training into 30 of us at the Houston complex then let all but 2 go.

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Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on September 29, 2013 at 7:40

The end of the 90s wasn't the best time in the oil patch, good thing the tech bubble was floating high back then and I survived by abstracting title to cell tower sites.

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Permalink Reply by Andrew on September 30, 2013 at 20:08

I think I'd rather have premium prices now with possibility for decline in the future than depressed prices now with a hope of an increase later. I think current gas price ranges are the new normal for next several years until structural changes really boost demand.

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