Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Catfish on August 21, 2009 at 1:50

I find nothing funny about the price of natural gas. This shale play has been a great boom to the local economy. Even if you do not have minerals in the play one should appreciate the overall effect. Jobs created, sales tax revenue, new companies moving to the area and on and on. I own but a small part in this great play but I do not envy anyone else for what they have or may get. We should all hope a better price for NG in the future and it will happen and the HS will continue to bring better things for Nw La.

Permalink Reply by Atlpilot on August 21, 2009 at 6:16

Count, you are obviously smarter than anyone else here so I will defer to your wisdom and judgment. Oh, by the way (HaHa) you missed the run up to $4 in your projection. I am still not losing any sleep over this and fully expected gas to drop to the $2-$3 range before reduced rig count plus overall economic activity begins to push the price back up. Just check back in 9-12 months. Atlplt.

Permalink Reply by Count of Monte Cristo on August 21, 2009 at 11:50

I know very well the fallacies most people make in making predictions, i'm a big fan of the book The Black Swan. You should read it sometime. If I had very deep pockets I would be loading the boat long NG futures contracts in a month or so when it may hit $2.50 or $2.25/Mcf. I agree 100% that NG will be rebound nicely in a few years, I was just commenting from the perspective of people who expect that a $30,000/acre, 30% royalty will still be around anytime soon. We will probably never see that good of an offer again in our lifetimes (after adjustments for inflation of course). If anything, the low prices of NG may speed up the development of it as a cheap bridge fuel to help reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

Permalink Reply by Atlpilot on August 22, 2009 at 8:02

Count, I have to agree with your response. I never was one of those who expected $30,000/ac, far from it. Let's hope for all involved that NG goes positive longterm, and that lease offers return to somewhere reasonable between the $300/ac being offered at the beginning of last year and the $30,000/ac some were expecting during the course of 2008. Only time and the drill bit will determine that. Atlpilot.

Permalink Reply by BirdDawg, plain ole' idiot on August 21, 2009 at 12:41

Count of Crisco Oil,
If you really think the current price of natural gas has anything to do with the future, then you are living in a dream world. And you are giving people bad advice.
Please don't take this wrong, but are you mentally challenged, or do you have an ulterior motive?
HaHa, what are you calling for mid to late 2010?
Now we will see how smart you are. (In mid to late 2010).

Permalink Reply by Count of Monte Cristo on August 21, 2009 at 13:23

Looks like someone pissed in your cheerios this morning. But just for kicks, i'd say $4.50-5.00/Mcf by November 2010. Depending on how quick Bernanke is to rein in the excess liquidity in the financial system, that will partially determine how bad inflation is in the future.

"Giving people bad advice?" - What do you want me to say, that if they hold out for 30 grand/30k per acre that that's a smart idea? The overwhelming evidence is these people will be lucky to see 3 grand in mid to north bossier parish, let alone 30 grand per acre. The Prescott 35-1 well drilled by Chesapeake was definitely sub par, and it's pretty clear to see that Chesapeake is abandoning most acreage north of I-20. Most of the other major players will probably follow suit, so what on earth makes you think smaller players will have enough capital in today's world to offer someone $5k+ per acre for marginal production in north Bossier parish?

Permalink Reply by BirdDawg, plain ole' idiot on August 22, 2009 at 3:31

Count,
Maybe I missed something, because I didn't realize your estimates werre"area specific". I definitly agree that the northern end will have much lower lease bonus's in the future.
But I think unleased people in say western Bienville Parish will see some very good prices in the near future. But I definitly know that it is not gonna be $20,000 or $30,000.

Permalink Reply by Atlpilot on July 17, 2009 at 5:44

Thanks GoshDarn. That is the type of info that I was looking for. Since I am out of state I appreciate all the local info I get from this site. Atlpilot.

Permalink Reply by Parkdota on July 22, 2009 at 11:44

You won't see 25k or 15k offers bc of the poor price situation. When people were getting 25k prices were 4x's higher.......so, 25k divided by 4x's is in the $6550/ac ball park that I've seen from 4 different companies played against one another. Also, speculation was that these wells were perpetual but they are not. They are seeing 50-80% decreases on prodution in the 1st year or so.....so, it is unlikely we'll ever see those prices again unless gas goes up 4-5x's higher which isn't going to happen any time soon. Now, w/a super hot summer, super cold winter, further limited production across the nation, and maybe a hurricane or two then prices might double by Jan./Feb. 2010 which could mean we see offers of closer to $15,000/ac. People offering aroun 1250/ac are fishing but keep in mind that not only is it a supply/demand issue but pricing as well along with taxation and the newly proposed energy bill that is beyond terrible for oil/gas companies. The industry has some MAJOR hurdles to overcome.

Permalink Reply by Major Bonnie on July 22, 2009 at 16:08

I know everyone's situation is different, but it seems like you are working with chunk change from Twin Cities. If you can't get the lease you deserve, why not hold out so you will be forced pooled. It seems you would certainly make a lot more money with 100 percent royalties. Something for you to think over....

Permalink Reply by James on September 11, 2009 at 12:58

I am seeing WAAAAYYYYY too many posts on here that appear to be landmen or someone in on it somehow!

The way I see it is this, If I don't get offered at least 10,000 with high royalties or at least 18,000 with the normal 25% I am turning it down. This is money I never had & would never miss! So why settle for pocket change & worry for quite a few years or kick myself in the ass down the road because I accepted the piddly 1500-3000 per acre & my land is leased up while others around me are getting more.

Remember people, unless you are struggling financially, going hungry or facing major hardship, why settle for pennies compared to the money these gas companies stand to make! I will wait to be force pooled & take the royalties & a hell of a lot more of them than 25%.

Permalink Reply by Henry on September 13, 2009 at 10:46

James,
I'm with you 100%. If the gas companies are going to make a ton of money off of my land, then I'm owed my fair share too.

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