One fear would be that they would create very large Participation Units and you would have to share the revenue stream with 20 or 30 other sections & your decimal interest would be .0000000___.

 

In another post someone said the above.

 

The advantange of large units is that yes, your decimal is smaller but so what?  In fact, with many wells added to the pool, then the revenue stream is smoothed out.  If you have a well which fails due to mechanical problems, your big check goes to zero... But if you have a tiny piece of 30 or 40 wells....you still get a check and hardly notice the absence of any one well.  In fact, I am in such a unit in another state and it is great. My check is predicable and it has produced since 1983.  The total reserves in the unit suggests 2 more generations of my family will benefit from the foresight of my grandfather in 1938 when he kept the mineral right.  The goal of the companies would be to maintain steady production by in fill drilling as the wells decline. And declines are severe. Most wells produce 50% or more of their potential within the first 12 months.

 

No I will never see a check for $250,000...but I won't be paying 37% tax either. Overall, I would say we've taken in over $250,000 since 83 and get to keep the majority of it.

 

I just finished looking up some deeds in Conway County and over the past year there have been a number of deeds for mineral rights that have sold for roughly $1,800 to $7,000 an acre.  A rule of thumb is that 3 x the current lease bonus is the value..and that seems to be confirmed by the deeds.

 

Also, a lot of the renewals (mostly SEECO) are 1/8th royalty, which was locked in by those option to renew clauses that I always recommended against.  The new normal is 3/16th and 20%..more 20% than 3/16th.  Never sign a lease that can be renewed after 5 years on predetermined terms.  At most, give them the right of first refusal for any offer made.

 

Finally, CHK just drilled a 12,000 foot (H) well near Blackwell on I-40 just E of the Pope-Conway Co. line.  This is to the best of my knowledge the furtherest south and west step out well.  IF it is successful, it will extend the play to its furtherest reaches and will suggest the deeper zones to the E may be productive.

Finally, I continue to be perplexed by CHK saying their wells will produce 2.6 BCF per well on average. In fact, having run some 100 declines in the play over the past 3 years I can safely say the "average" well is about 1 BCF and SEECo's admission recently that they had only 1.1 BCF per well jives with my findings.  At some $3 - 4 Million per well and $3-4 gas...that is some very marginal economics.  Just saying...

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I was trying to run a reasonable decline curve expectation for the Fayetteville Shale here is what I was coming up with:

Month 1 - 2,100 Mcf/d

Month 2 - 1,874

Month 3 - 1,662

Month 4 - 1,519

Month 5 - 1,453

Month 6 - 1,323

Month 7 - 1,247

Month 8 - 1,142

Month 9 - 1,092

Month 10 - 1,049

Month 11 - 976

Month 12 - 928

 

12 Month Decline - 56%

Year 1 - 490,907

Year 2 - 319,659

Year 3 - 292,881

Year 4 - 266,102

Year 5 - 239,324

 

EUR = 2.5 BCF

 

SEECO was reporting:

3,280 Mcf/d IP

62% 12 Month decline

$2.8 Million Average well cost

 

 

This feels pretty optimistic, what do your decline curves suggest is more reasonable and realistic?

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