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Comment by John Avatar on December 10, 2009 at 13:36

Essay, once again you have proved to be a plethora of misguided conjecture and misinformation.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/31/content_7530491.htm

Comment by essay on December 10, 2009 at 4:48

now this is amusing. http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2476074/spiral_lights_over...

Comment by essay on December 9, 2009 at 20:34

taiwan isn't a patch on china as far as owning u.s. securities goes, if we actually sell them stuff like blackhawks and subs i'll be surprised. this looks to me like leverage-seeking bluster. bush didn't go through with it either.

to address a few points in your post from yesterday, comparing the potential for political unrest in the u.s. to what could happen in china is like comparing a church choir to a death metal mosh pit... and when your economy relies heavily on exports as china's does you're particularly vulnerable.

there are a number of people far smarter and more educated than i calling for truly dire things to happen in the near future involving the collapse of the ccp. while i am skeptical that central governmental control will disappear, it is a frightening prospect to contemplate.

Comment by sesport on December 9, 2009 at 18:38

Awww, pooh, stepping on toes time. Have to edit what I posted below as now I'm sure China may become AR over arms deal with Taiwan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B906Y20091210

80P

Comment by sesport on December 8, 2009 at 18:46

fine, If your wife says you're being a big jerk, who am I to argue with her? If I'm a brick wall, I can't even imagine the material she's made of that can move you to reasonableness. Does she have the patent to that material like the cat has to the hat? lol

Oh, I'm not necessarily being insistent that YOU expect compensation from China, it just seemed to get thrown in the mix of the discussion as to how Pres. Obama can give his blessing to ng E&P in China. You kept insisting that all we would ever get from China & Russia is talk, I tend to think it will amount to some kind of diplomatic AND economic exchange. I thought you were looking for more tangible support, such as troops or funding, in the current conflicts.

My take on more recent relations with China is that they are improving. Not that there still isn't some unease and slight suspicion. China needs to be concerned about the possibility of increased unemployment in it's cities, just as we are, and the potential for political unrest, again just as we are experiencing. China must also worry about a strengthened US-Indian strategic partnership, so it must be one of their goals to improve their own relations with India. They also must be concerned about increasing military cooperation between the US and Taiwan. Additionally, since we withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, China on it's own doesn't have sufficient nuclear deterrents to match the US.

In sum, the current power relations aren't just the US and China, it's a delicate power balance between the US, China and Russia, and no one of them completely trusts each of the others on an individual level. Again, I believe the 2 latter are more dependant on the former as our reputation as a military and an economic power still makes us a highly desirable ally. The economic downturn is global, therefore everyone feels the pinch right now and that neutralizes vulnerabilities, IMO.

Because of the potential for a great power war, each of the 3 countries seems to be treating the other 2 with the most diplomatic of kid gloves, and, as both Russia & China are now getting a taste of the fruits of capitalism, one of those kid gloves is going to be on the helping hand of economic development across the waters going in both directions.

Letter grades are not given for op-ed pieces as I do not find it just to quantify, either numericaly or subjectively, what one thinks or feels. But you already knew that. lol As for the lost lunch break, it was you who challenged me to make you work harder, you should have also worked smarter and multi-tasked. 80)

Comment by essay on December 8, 2009 at 10:23

fine, if we're all done trolling i can be civil. my wife says i'm being a big jerk so i'll answer you with what i really think... i'm currently trying to figure out how to invest in asia, so much of this is fresh in my head. and actually i would come closer to investing in india than china, but i digress ;)

sesport i'm not sure why you seem insistent that i expect some specific compensation for directional drilling technology, and quite frankly i have a hard time even swallowing the idea that they really need much help in that area at all.

in my opinion from an economic point of view the best thing china could do for the united states is to support the dollar as reserve currency, but as they seem to be actively engaged in trying to undermine it, my best answer is "they can aid us most by avoiding economic and social implosion." and perhaps tweaking the yuan a bit along the way would be nice.

when everyone seems to agree gravy days will last forever, it's usually a good time to find cover. it is amazing to think that literally hundreds of millions of chinese have been lifted out of virtual serfdom in the last few decades, but the nation desperately needs to extend infrastructure development into the interior. with many tens of millions still living below their "poverty line" (something like $150 annual equivalent iirc) china faces a continuing herculean task, one made even more difficult by a global economic downturn (some would say depression) which has resulted in the closure of many factories to curb overproduction and recent cancellation of pending industrial projects worth billions. all in all, i'm less than convinced of china's internal stability.

china's interest in overall global stability seems to grow somewhat in proportion to it's economy and middle class, but unfortunately this is the same tie that binds her to iran. how far they really go remains to be seen, but iran already provides china with a nice chunk of their energy... and in turn imports almost half of it's gasoline from china...

the very interconnectedness of everything is exactly why china (along with the u.s., ironically enough) will do nothing but negotiate and posture regarding iranian nuclear ambitions. both iran and china's underlying ideologies already have robust representation amid the political fabric of the united states, and all iran has to do is buy time. china does not fear iranian nukes getting into the hands of al quaeda, hamas, hezbollah, etc, as does the united states, and it makes no sense to put herself out when it is so easy to exploit the situation to her advantage.

something tells me even if we got international consent to blockade iran by land, sea, and air, we would be hard pressed to be very effective without actual substantive military support from other major players, with at least an agreement of non-interference from russia and china, and the likelihood of that happening is very near zero by my estimation.

a far more likely scenario is netanyahu might actually be crazy enough to start dropping bombs, which i'm afraid would only postpone the inevitable and, like as not, go very poorly for the israelis and by extention, the united states. there would probably be a global wave of renewed anti-zionism and jihadi fighters would pour into the theater from all over the muslim world. maybe we would even see terrorist sleeper cells activated. who knows. it'd be a damn mess for sure.

if iran were a free islamic nation with at least the semblance of a responsible government actually beholden to the people, i would have no problem with them possessing nuclear armaments, no more than i do india or israel, because i would be fairly certain they would never be used. our best hope is the citizenry, but obama has shown he would rather negotiate with tyranny than stand with the brave protesters, many hundreds of whom are being held captive by vicious government thugs as we speak. if not for the internet we would probably never have seen these images. be warned they are graphic.

the long and the short of it is i can't see my way around a world with a nuclear iran at some point, not without massive economic consequences almost nobody is willing to invite. i am ashamed for our president not being on the right side of history with our freedom seeking muslim brothers, when all of the political maneuvering and posturing is so pointless without the will to actually follow through on anything. but then we see how obama likes to play at politics, even with such things as the troop increase. i wonder just how lightweight the russians and chinese think he is, exactly.

in the spirit of dragging the thread back out of the weeds and staying on the original topic, allow me to reiterate that i think obama is just along for the ride, and it is entirely possible that we will end up greatly regretting much of what results from his so-called policy, both foreign and domestic. i've even said before i believe obama can salvage his presidency if he shakes off some of the people and organizations that seem to have him in thrall, and i still believe it, as three years is an eternity in political terms... but the chances are pretty slim and getting slimmer as we go along. but mainly i think that's just my patriotism not wanting my president to suck as much as he does.

i could have just said "nothing" and "nothing" to answer your questions, or not even answered at all, but that's no fun for anybody, and after all i wouldn't want you to think you have a corner on stubborn. note i have forgone discussion of the philosophical underpinnings and how this ties into many topical subjects like capntax etc, but you still owe me a letter grade for the assignment and a sandwich for my lost lunch break.

Comment by sesport on December 8, 2009 at 0:02

Aw, now, you've stung me with that "disappointment" thing again ... NOT. I got over needing parental approval a loonnnggg time ago, thank you.

What? No rebuttal to my statement, and thus expectation, that China may help us in some capacity based on what they've done for us in the more recent past?

Again (and let me rephrase for clarity), what is it that you are wanting/hoping China will do for the US in the interest of national security in exchange for sharing drilling techniques?

BTW, I will correct my attribution for the "lights out" comment, it was Keith's comment, not essay's.

80)

Comment by essay on December 7, 2009 at 15:49

yep cutting and pasting is sooo harrrrd. i'm not sure how many times i have to say china will do NOTHING BUT TALK. brick wall indeed.

you two geniuses are amazing! on one hand sesport, you think it's an honor to have your arguments publicly destroyed, and all john can come up with is to call me a dum sumbitch? awesome. just awesome.

i was expecting a little more substance. i'm very disappointed in you both.

Comment by sesport on December 7, 2009 at 13:30

Why? Because he chooses a hobby that involves beating his head against a brick upon which spray painted letters spell "sesport?" lol 80)

Comment by John Avatar on December 7, 2009 at 2:52

Essay, you're a dum sumbitch.

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