Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 22, 2009 at 17:52

Henry, it is difficult to predict operator plans but I would anticipate these wells being opened further with increased rates during 2010, especially if natural gas prices improve. There is no reason to expect the wells in the southern portion of the play (Sabine Parish) to have different EUR's or behave significantly different than the wells in Caddo Parish. The wells may have a higher flowing pressure due to depth and will also require some additional treating due to the higher CO2 & H2S content.

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Permalink Reply by Henry on December 23, 2009 at 1:15

Les B,
Thanks. This is what I wanted to know. And I recogineze that data in the south is still sparse.

But, if the EUR in Northern Sabine is thought to be the same as the EUR in Northern DeSoto Parish, AND Northern Sabine Parish sits on top of the Mid Bossier Shale also, maybe people in Northern Sabine Parish should be demanding more than the $6k being offered to some today. As an unleased mineral owner in this area, who sits on top of both the Haynesville Core and the Mid Bossier Core (based on both Chesapeake's and Petrohawk's blob charts), I don't think $6k going to get me to sign a lease.

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Permalink Reply by Cheerleader on December 24, 2009 at 9:45

Henry,
Absolutely!!
This is my position also which I repeat, OVER and OVER and OVER.

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Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on December 24, 2009 at 15:07

How do you get a range of EUR's of 4.5 - 8.5 B's in the core unless some areas have better rock than others ? For planning purposes, I personally use 6 B's in the Haynesville and 4 B's in the Bossier in Chesapeake's interpretation of the "stacked" area of the play. I suspect Petrohawk's interpretation of the Bossier may be a bit too liberal, but I hope it turns ou to be the accurate one. EOG is drilling and completing in the Southern portion of DeSoto Parish (T12 and T 11) and they report IP's in the 9-14 million ft/day, but on large chokes of 28-32/64 resulting i, greatly reduced flowing casing pressures of 3-5,000 psi. Chesapeake and Petrohawk are going to have to drill more wells along the DeSoto/Sabine line before we have an accurate picure.

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Permalink Reply by RONNY on December 24, 2009 at 15:42

Chesapeake always seems to be drilling in some bad rock. How come Exco, Devon, Petrohawk, Questar, Encana, etc. etc seem to always get the good rock? I can't figure why the big dog on the block always seems to have lower IP rates than their competitors. I personally don't think Chesapeake has it figured out yet. JMO

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Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on December 24, 2009 at 19:45

Not defending Chesapeake, but I disagree. How many HOF wells does Encana have? Or Devon for that matter. Yes, Devon has the one large announced well in Texas but they did so on a huge choke size. There is substantial difference in the IP's reported by Exco on Sonris and the IP's reported by Exco in their news releases. Few, if any of Exco's "official" IP's on Sonris are above 20 million/day. That pretty much leaves Petrohawk and Questar and there is no doubt that their major area of early concentration along the Red River in Elm Grove, Swan Lake, and Thorn Lake and to the East in western Bienville are major "sweet spots". Not the only sweet spots, but certainly sweet spots. Also makes a difference whether you spend $6.5 million/well with a 10 stage frac or $8.0 million/well with a 14 or 16 stage frac. I have small interests in wells drilled by CHK, XCO, and HK, so I'm pulling for all of them. Remember, at this point in the game, they are all sharing information regarding drilling and completions.

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 24, 2009 at 19:54

SB, I just saw Devon has filed for units in the Caddo Pine Island Field. Can't wait to see what IP's they may be able to generate in the far north area of the play.

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Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on December 24, 2009 at 20:06

I own a few acres of minerals just south of Caddo Pine Island in Longwood that I had just about written off as a lost cause unless the price of gas gets back in the teens. I did not see Devon's filing but I hope they are wildly successful. Because of the increased clay content to the north, I aassume they're gonna have to tweak the frac methodology. If anyone can do it successfully, Devon can. Les, did you see the IP on Matador's Hall 5H in 19/15, Section 5 (I believe that's Pine Island). It IP'd at a whopping 300 mcf/day!!!! They will get the full 2 year severance tax exemption!!!! They were Haynesville units that Devon filed for? I look on the Dept of Conservation web page regularly for unit applications but sure missed Devons's application in Caddo Pine Island.

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Permalink Reply by Henry on December 25, 2009 at 1:07

SB,
I had been wondering about why some companies do a 14-16 stage frac vs. a 10 stage frac. And when I read Chesapeake's reports, they claim to have the cost of a well down to about $7M (or less), while Petrohawk still claims $8-9M per well. Does there seems to be a difference in strategy about how to drill these wells? Why would CHK go the cheapo route? I, too, am pulling for all of them -- I figure whatevever one company figures out will eventually leak into the others and result in better wells. I have not yet been drilled, so I'm hoping they all get better at drilling and producing these wells.

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 22, 2009 at 18:05

Henry, it is difficult to say if these wells would top 20 MMcfd if produced on more reasonable choke sizes but it is possible. I believe a rate of ~ 15 MMcfd would be more likely which is comparable to other parts of the Haynesville Shale play.

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Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on December 24, 2009 at 4:46

(off subject) on sonnris...runing whipstock, what's with that?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 24, 2009 at 13:52

Ken, a whipstock tool is used to sidetrack a wellbore. This may be required to drill around an obstruction in the wellbore or some formation problem.

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