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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 23, 2012 at 22:24

Page 22 was my personal fav.

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Overall this is the best presentation geared to laypeople on the future of natgas that I have seen.  The graphs are the easiest to read and understand.

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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 24, 2012 at 20:59

What I like about this presentation is that it moves the shaky consensus for ng forward.  Obama's speech tonight was a signal that natgas will go forward - although the how much it's regulated will be debated. I tend to think the public will favor something like his plan with additional regulations.

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Overall people are terrible predictors of the future.  Look at how few wall st investors make money over time and those guys have the highest paid experts money can buy.

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PS: what do you think the bottom of natgas will be?  you have been on here long enough to have a decent opinion of it?

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Permalink Reply by essay on January 24, 2012 at 21:39

he's giving lip service to his base of environmentalist watermelons (green on the outside, red on the inside, whether they realize it or not) who at this point are probably confused and angry about why he seems to be condoning this practice they have all been told is going to poison our drinking water.  it seems especially ironic after saying no to one more pipeline in a literal labyrinth of pipelines... 25,000 miles worth, already crisscrossing the oh-so-delicate sand hills, never mind over 2.3 million miles all over the nation...

i suspect there will be no actual movement of any meaningful natural gas legislation, either way, until 2013.  i would frankly be suspicious of any "compromise" negotiated before then.  prices i think are going to largely revolve around the weather, and how the producers act... laying down rigs, deferring completions, etc.  if we're lucky and others follow chesapeake's lead, and maybe we get a little cold weather, perhaps the bottom could be in?  with the way things were going a few weeks ago i was thinking sub $2 easy by next september or so.  who knows.

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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 24, 2012 at 21:46

My 80-20 rule says we may be near a bottom now.  Looks to me like 80% of the experts think natgas will fall more.  Usually, that means the bottom.  Wouldn't you guess 80% of the forecasters are bearish on natgas?

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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 25, 2012 at 17:59

no! no! no! i'm a guy who is thankful hall monitors at Byrd did not have alcohol breath testers in the 60's!

Truthfully, my better half values hall monitors.  They have been needed ever since we started having lots of classes in schools. God love 'em (as he sneaks through the gym and out the side door to hide the bottle ...)

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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 27, 2012 at 23:05

Sesport, you ask the essential question! It's the age old issue of if we want to eat our stored up nuts today or save them for the winter. 

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I recall this lesson in 7th grade school at Greenwood.  Mrs. Bruce was pointing out the window to a squirrel gathering nuts. This simple lesson using the inborn intelligence of squirrels made a powerful impression on me.

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Probably each one of us was taught by some teacher the example of the squirrel storing up food for the uncertain winter. We forget those lessons when we are adults with big pants on - but the life principle is the same for us as individuals as it is a nation.  It's nuts to spend our supply of energy that we should hold onto for long term security.

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So, is that the right answer?  Do I get extra credit???  Can I move up from #348 in my high school graduating class??

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Permalink Reply by bret rothwell on January 28, 2012 at 5:57

From the graphs 16 and 17 consumption growth is forecast to be half of the growth in natural gas deliverability. So equivalent gas prices are forecast to be even lower through 2035. This last week,EIA reported average retail propane sold for $2.86/gal while the same EIA schedule reported gasoline at $3.38/gal and diesel at $3.84/gal. To compare costs per equivalent horsepower gasoline holds 37% more power than propane, so equivalent horsepower or mpg price of propane would be $3.91 per gallon. 

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