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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on February 23, 2012 at 9:09

I know HK stated that 80% of the EUR of their wells are produced within 10 years.  Just wondering if anyone has heard a "rule of thumb" for the first 2 years?

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on February 23, 2012 at 15:16

Would it be estimated to be in the range of an 8 BCF well?

 

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on February 23, 2012 at 15:18

Or more?

Or less?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on February 24, 2012 at 4:09

Bobi, I would estimate a well should produce ~ 36% of its EUR in the first 24 months based on a restricted rate (choke) program.  So the well would have a projected EUR of 9.3 Bcf.

 

Also, you can put the monthly production into an Excel file generate a decline curve specific to that well.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on February 24, 2012 at 5:25

Thanks Les.  That is very helpful information.

This particular well did begin production on a 14/64 choke and is a HK well.  

Do you think the first 24 months is a better determination of the best wells than the IP?

Also what % of Haynesville wells do you estimate to be in the 9.3 or higher range?

I recently read that the average EUR of a Haynesville well is 3.0, do you think this figure is correct?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on February 24, 2012 at 7:28

Bobi,

 

Do you think the first 24 months is a better determination of the best wells than the IP? Yes

 

Also what % of Haynesville wells do you estimate to be in the 9.3 or higher range?  I do not have an estimate but it would likely be less than 20%.

 

I recently read that the average EUR of a Haynesville well is 3.0, do you think this figure is correct?  No

 

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on February 24, 2012 at 7:43

Les,

What do you think the average EUR of a Haynesville well is?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on February 24, 2012 at 11:29

Bobi,

 

Most operators are still in the 6.5 Bcf neighborhood for the average.

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Permalink Reply by Dion Warr, CPL on February 24, 2012 at 5:43

Bobi:

 

Per your request:

 

I hadn't visited these models in a while (to give you an idea, I've still got Arp-based hyperbolic plots in my spreadsheets tailored to more wide-open flow).  Based on "the old days" of 24 - 28/64 (or adjustable) chokes, those numbers would rate around 6.4 - 7.5 BCF, depending upon constants that worked ca. 2008-09.  That would model based upon IP around 15 - 17 MMcfd.

 

Pure hyperbolic doesn't fit anymore, especially with HK (or should I say BHP), whose more recent restricted-choke wells are starting to look like the proverbial "rising fastballs" of the HS; some of their recent well completions are actually increasing their reported production in successive months (undoubtedly from better fracs and cleanup from flowback).  Based upon their recent track record, 8+ BCF EUR doesn't look out of the realm.

 

So, I guess, IMHO, I fit somewhere between Les B and Arthur Berman (who, I am sure if he were to weigh in here, would tell you that your numbers are obviously wrong, your well is about to spontaneously collapse into a black hole and will take about approximately 1/2 BCF of gas back into itself before the pipeliners block off the valves.  Because shale wells just don't produce more than 2.5 BCF.

 

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Permalink Reply by Dion Warr, CPL on February 24, 2012 at 6:04

Bobi:

 

Post-script: One of my more "tweaked" (modified) plots crosses 24 mo. @ 3.3 BCF and EURed at 9.9 BCF.  But it started at IP = 18 MMcfd.  It might help to know what well we're following here...  -- DLW

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on February 24, 2012 at 6:26

This particular will is 239822.

I was surprised when I compared this to 239471.    239741 is in South Caddo at the DeSoto line.  Initially, I assumed that the South Caddo well would be significantly higher, but actually the S. Caddo well was 2,460,168 for it's first 24 months of production.

I see in the latest bhpbilliton presentation that they have a new map that I haven't seen before differentiating the 8 BCF areas.  Since they weren't kind enough to provide Section, Township and Range information, I've been trying to get a better handle on the local production potential.

Thanks for your help.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on February 24, 2012 at 6:28

Here is the presentation:

http://www.bhpbilliton.com/home/investors/reports/Documents/2011/11...

Slide 42

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