Why US needs to increase LNG Export abililty
Japanese LNG import volumes and prices grew more than 10 percent, in 2011 and 2012.
According to Official Statistics of Japan, imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose by 12 percent from 2010 to 2011 and 11 percent from 2011 to 2012. The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, accompanying tsunami and subsequent nuclear plant outages, have led to higher use of thermal generation, including natural gas fired generation. According to the Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, LNG consumed for power generation grew 27 percent from fiscal year (April to March) 2010 to fiscal year 2011. Total LNG imports over the same period grew by a smaller percentage (18 percent) as the destruction from the earthquake limited natural gas demand outside the power sector.
Based on data from Official Statistics of Japan, from 2010 to 2011, the average price for LNG imported to Japan grew 35 percent from US$10.92 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) to US$14.78 per MMBtu. The average import price grew again in 2012, to US$16.62 per MMBtu, or 12 percent over the 2011 average. Most LNG imported to Japan is imported under long-term contracts with the LNG prices explicitly linked to the price of crude oil. However, in order to increase imports since the earthquake, Japanese companies have had to buy more LNG under short-term or spot arrangements, with the prices negotiated between buyers and sellers.
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Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by adubu on
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Skip-- you augment same point I made ---yes there are LNG projects on drawing board totaling about 25bcfd capacity but due to market worldwide that will dictate amount exported about only 10bcfd will come on line in next 5-10 years from gas supplies in USA and this will be a demand source for USA excess supply to support our market and drilling programs. Is it enough to get back to $14 gas again of course NO, but it helps and IMO will help support Nat gas in $5-6 range for next 15-20 years IMO ( we should see $5 gas beginning about 2015 ) of course we need to continue with our on increase demands of Chemical Companies that use high amount Nat gas and other new demands from cars,trucks,and trains etc.
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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on -
I think 10bcfd is far short of enough to impact domestic price. Particularly when it is spread across multiple export terminals located on all our coasts. The low cost supplier(s) for each terminal will get some regional benefit. IMO the global market for LNG will not have an appreciable impact on the price of natural gas. LA and TX lessors are lucky that they will have a new market for their gas that used to go the NE but has been interrupted by Marcellus supply. However nat gas as industrial fuel and feed stock will be far more significant than LNG export.
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Permalink Reply by adubu on
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Cheniere's has contacts in place for 89% of trains 1-4 very positive for LNG
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Permalink Reply by adubu on
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will take all new sources for demand we can. 10bcfd is 3.6 Tcf/year or 14% annual production in USA (presently a little less than 70 Bcfd) which will have some effect on local supplies and especially since storage will only hold 4+Tcf. This has to be positive for Nat Gas prices and give increase demand so drilling will increase in the gas fields. Wet gas field drilling may cover the supply but maybe need rigs to come back to dry gas HA. This is only in future after 2015-16+
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