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Permalink Reply by dbob on April 3, 2011 at 10:20

Nice presentation,

Looks like it under estimates the number of future Haynesville wells - 4800 sq miles = 4800 sections X 8 wells per section = just shy of say 40,000 wells.  Now, I'll by the concept that there will only be 10,000 well sites, but not just 40,000 wells.  That doesn't include the areas where the Bossier and Haynesville overlap.  Finally, I don't by the of quoted 5 million gallons/well.  Actual # IMHO is probably closer to 7.5 to 10 million gallons.  

 

Dbob

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 3, 2011 at 11:34

If we figure approximately 2000 sections of the 2122 will actually be developed and assign 8 HA wells to each, the total would be in the range of 16,000 wells.  Add in maybe half that many for the BO and 24,000 wells would seem to be in a reasonable ball park.  With improved future nat gas prices maybe 10% more.  Sometime this year we will surpass 2,000 producing wells.  A generation of our NW. LA. population could very well make their entire careers working in the HA/BO Shale Play in some way or another.  And countless indirectly connected businesses and employees will also owe much of their livelihood to the Shale.  It is difficult to overstate the economic impact spread over the next thirty-five or so years.

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on April 3, 2011 at 13:48

Sesport, the following are a few comments/observations.

 

Slide 2 - Full scale development of the Haynesville Shale began in 2009/2010 rather than Spring 2008.

 

Slide 5 - The developable area of the Haynesville Shale may cover 5200 sq miles but will require ~ 33,000 wells.  The Bossier Shale may need an additional 12,000 wells resulting in a total of 45,000 wells.  For Louisiana alone there are 2371 existing units for the Haynesville/Bossier Shale and 2200 wells.  Of these wells ~ 1175 are producing.   

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Permalink Reply by dbob on April 3, 2011 at 14:06

For comparision, the Barnett is now at 15900+ wells and still going strong - althought much of the current drilling is trying to target oil or fill in existing leases.  Generally agreed that we won't see 40,000 wells of the same quality we are seeing now.  Over time, as gas prices recover, the more marginal areas will become economic.  I'd buy into the idea that you'll see 10,000 wells similar to those currently seen, but will probably see many more over the life of the play, particularly say 20-30 years out from now. 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 3, 2011 at 14:18

dbob, any idea how many of the Barnett 15,900 wells are vertical and how many horizontal?  What years were the total wells drilled over?

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Permalink Reply by dbob on April 3, 2011 at 15:29

Skip,  

 

The wells have been drilled from roughly 1993 to date.  The vast majority were drilled in the last 8 years.  There was a big spike in activity with 4000 + drilling permits in 2008, with a drop down to 2000 permits in 2009.  It took almost 10 years to drill the first 1000 wells.  

 

I had my number wrong -14900 wells, with 2800 permitted locations.  http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/data/fielddata/barnettshale.pdf

 

I'll have to dig into the permits to see what the ratio of horizontal to vertical is - I suspect there is probably 1 horizontal to every vertical, but that is just a WAG.  

 

I think, but I'm not certain, that the typical IP is lower on a Barnett well vs. a Haynesville.  assuming both are horizontal wells.  That may account for some of the difference  (e.g. more Barnett wells are needed to produce the same gas as one Haynesville)  

 

Recoverable gas looks to be about 50 TCFin the Barnett, vs 250 TCF in the Haynesville (Texas and LA).  Assuming production of 8 BCF/well, that would give roughly 31250 wells for full production.  

 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 3, 2011 at 16:45

Thanks, dbob.  My impression of the Barnett was that it was developed for years with vertical wells and then really took off when Mitchell Energy learned how to drill horizontal wells.  It's a great story of a field with two lives.  And will be remembered as the first modern Shale Play where the technology was invented and refined.

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on April 3, 2011 at 17:17

Skip, sorry but the initial application of horizontal drilling in the Barnett Shale was done primarily by operators other than Mitchell.  Also, both technologies were already known but were combined and applied in the original "non-core" areas of the Barnett Shale that were thinner and could not be economically developed with vertical wells.  The field production growth really took off due to the entry of several new players in areas outside the Mitchell/Devon core acreage holding.  Prior to this time the field development proceeded at a much slower pace due to Mitchell's near monopoly control of the original core acreage.     

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 4, 2011 at 1:39

Les B., no apology required.  Thanks for the explanation.  If memory serves, a former employee of Mitchell was writing a book about George, the Barnett and the progression of the technology.  If you run across it please let me know.

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